Democrat Tom Suozzi emerged victorious in the special election for New York’s 3rd Congressional District, defeating Republican Mazi Pilip by a margin of 54 percent to 46 percent. The outcome of this election was a significant win for Democrats, as it brings them one step closer to gaining a majority in the House of Representatives. However, it is important to note that individual special election results should not be taken as indicative of the outcome of the 2024 general election.
Special elections often have unique factors and can be subject to random influences such as candidate quality and local issues. When examining the results of special elections held this cycle, it becomes evident that they have deviated from the base partisanship of their respective districts. Tom Suozzi’s overperformance by 4 percentage points in New York’s 3rd District aligns with the trend of candidates outperforming their district’s partisanship. However, it is worth mentioning that Republican Celeste Maloy and Democrat Gabe Amo also exceeded expectations in their races. Therefore, it is unlikely that these results reflect a significant shift in the national political landscape.
Nonetheless, when looking at the aggregate results of special elections, there is a positive trend for Democrats. On average, Democratic candidates have outperformed the partisanship of their districts by 6 points in special congressional and state-legislative elections this cycle. However, the special election in New York’s 3rd District does not provide much new insight into this trend, as Democrats were already performing well in special elections leading up to this week.
Some observers have attempted to undermine polls showing former President Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden by pointing out that Democrats were underestimated in polls for the New York 3rd special election. However, this argument fails to consider that polls conducted far in advance of Election Day have limited predictive power. Moreover, the polling for the special election was actually quite accurate. In the three polls conducted within three weeks of the election, Suozzi held an average lead of 3 points. His ultimate victory by 8 points indicates that the polls underestimated the Democratic margin by 5 points, which is still better than the average error in U.S. House polls.
It is essential to recognize that predicting polling errors, or statistical bias, is a challenging task. Polling biases can vary significantly from election to election as pollsters refine their methods based on past mistakes. For instance, after overestimating Republicans in 2012, polls subsequently overestimated Democrats in 2014 and 2016. Therefore, the fact that polls overestimated Republicans in the New York 3rd special election should not be seen as an indication of how polls will perform in the upcoming November elections.
Furthermore, it is worth considering the impact of a nor’easter that occurred on the day of the election. The storm, which brought substantial snowfall to the district, potentially contributed to lower Republican turnout. Since 2020, Republicans have shown a preference for voting on the day of the election rather than through mail or early in-person voting. Consequently, if the storm deterred some individuals from voting on Tuesday, it is likely that they were disproportionately Republican. This resulted in a more Democratic-leaning electorate than what was predicted by some pollsters. Siena College/Newsday’s poll of the race projected an equal number of registered Democrats and Republicans voting, but in reality, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by approximately 7 points.
While this election result may offer Democrats a blueprint for winning other House races on Long Island, such as the neighboring 4th District currently represented by Republican Anthony D’Esposito, it does not necessarily signify a groundswell of national support for Democrats that is being missed by polls. With Democrats now needing to flip only four congressional seats to regain control of the House, this victory holds substantial importance. However, it is crucial to avoid extrapolating too much from a single special election and to approach the 2024 general election with caution.
In conclusion, Democrat Tom Suozzi’s triumph in the special election for New York’s 3rd Congressional District is a significant win for his party. However, it is important to view this result within the context of other special elections and recognize the potential influence of idiosyncratic factors. While there is evidence of Democrats outperforming partisanship in special elections overall, this particular race does not provide substantial new insights. The accuracy of polls cannot be disregarded, and any estimation of polling bias should be approached with caution. Ultimately, this election result may provide Democrats with a strategic advantage in future House races, but it does not necessarily indicate a broader national trend that polls have missed.
