Beirut / Wassim Seif El-Din / Anatolia
Immediately after the announcement of the completion of the maritime border demarcation agreement between Lebanon and Israel, many expected that this would enable their country to extract oil and gas and improve the situation of the collapsing economy.
Lebanese President Michel Aoun said on Wednesday that the completion of the maritime border demarcation agreement with Israel “will pull Lebanon out of the abyss into which it has fallen”.
Finance Minister Youssef Al-Khalil praised the demarcation step, although its physical translation could take years, but it constitutes a moral lever to recover from the state of collapse and restore confidence.
And on Tuesday, the Lebanese presidency announced in a statement that the final version of a US draft agreement to delimit borders with Israel “satisfies Lebanon, satisfies its demands and preserves its rights to its natural wealth.”
He added that President Aoun “will conduct the necessary consultations on this national issue, in preparation for the official announcement of the unified national position”.
Israel also announced the approval of the draft agreement presented by the American mediator, Amos Hochstein, on Tuesday Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid called the expected agreement “historic”.
The two countries held indirect negotiations, which lasted two years, mediated by the United States, on an area rich in oil and natural gas in the Mediterranean, with an area of 860 square kilometers.
The signing of this agreement would open the doors to exploration works in Lebanon, where the French company “Total Energies” intends to start drilling for oil and gas in Lebanese territorial waters, as soon as the final touches are made to the agreement.
Interestingly, in February 2018, Lebanon signed a contract with the French-led oil consortium “Total Energies”, which includes both the Italian “Eni” and the Russian “Novatek”, to explore oil and gas at Blocks. 4 and 9 in its territorial waters.
But “Novatek” withdrew last August due to developments in Russia and international sanctions imposed on its members.
Lebanese economic analysts have felt that their country will not derive economic benefits immediately once the agreement is signed, but the benefit takes years to achieve, underlining the need to radically reform the current economic system.
** This benefit could take years
In this context, Patrick Mardini, director of the Lebanese Institute for Market Studies, said it is too early to talk about economic gains following the signing of the border demarcation agreement between Lebanon and Israel, as the matter takes time. .
Mardini added, in an interview with Anatolia, that the “Qana” camp, in which Lebanon claims to have obtained full rights, “is not yet discovered and we do not know what it stores gas or oil … The question it needs exploration and exploration. “
He said: “If we accept by argument that the gas was found in the Qana field, it will not improve the economic crisis situation in the country, because the Lebanese do not trust that the funds of the natural resources explored in the sea will benefit or be plundered, as happened with depositors’ money “.
For his part, the economic expert, Munir Younes, told the Anadolu agency, that the economic gains are not immediate and are postponed, because Lebanon has no confirmed studies on what the “Qana” field holds in terms of reserves. of gas or oil.
In an interview with the Anadolu Agency, he explained that the first phase will be exploration, and then exploration to know and estimate the reserves that exist in this field and others in the special economic zones of Lebanon.
Youni should know the quantities stored in the “Qana” field after next spring via Total, and then it will take 3 to 5 years to start pumping according to the experiences of other countries, but there are Israeli estimates that have announced that this field does not storing large quantities of oil and gas.
While the economic analyst Mahasin Mursal has stated that knowing the economic gains are related to the operations of exploration and drilling, and to the determination of the quantities of existing gas, and therefore to production, and that this matter takes years.
** Mandatory fixes
The economics expert, Mounir Younes, stressed the need to separate the path of reforms that Lebanon must undertake as soon as possible, in accordance with the agreement of the International Monetary Fund, from the path of oil, which must be accompanied by legislation special.
He added: “Lebanon should start implementing transparent legislation on how to use the revenue and not repeat what happened previously, when most of the state’s revenue was wasted through quotas.”
He stressed the importance of real reform at the level of public finance, independent judiciary, banking and governance, “even if high oil revenues arrive, there is a high probability that they will be squandered and go in the wrong direction.”
For his part, the expert in economics and finance, Professor Jassem Ajaga, called for a series of reforms to be implemented in the Lebanese economic system, “so as to be able to create an economy and benefit from oil, while ensuring continuity. for the future.”
He explained that the agreement (demarcation of maritime borders) can bring Lebanon out of the crisis if it undertakes the necessary economic reforms that allow it to obtain significant revenues after its entry into the group of oil countries.
The news published on the official page of the Anadolu Agency is the abbreviation of a part of the news that is presented to subscribers through the News Stream System (HAS). To register with the agency, please contact the following link.
