RFI: Can the United States provide all the ammunition Ukraine needs ?
Mark Cancian : It is important to keep in mind that for most weapons, the United States has enough to give to Ukraine. But there are things where supplies sent to Ukraine have reduced US stockpiles to levels the Pentagon is now bothered with. Because of possible other conflicts, for example with North Korea. Especially the 155mm ammunition. The United States gave just over a million shells to Ukraine. But Ukraine uses about 90,000 a month. And to put that into perspective, the United States produced 93,000 in 2021. So Ukrainians use as many in a month as the United States produces in an entire year.
The United States increases its level of production. They hope to grow to 20,000 a month by spring and possibly 40,000 within a year or two. So that’s not going to be enough. So the Europeans can supply some, but the Ukrainians are probably going to have to prioritize their targets until everyone’s production levels increase. The United States and the Europeans are working to adapt to the demand for ammunition, artillery and the like, but it takes time.
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We know that Joe Biden and Volodymyr Zelensky talked about other types of weapons again when they saw each other on February 20 in Kyiv : long-range artillery and F-16 combat aircraft. So far, the United States does not want to supply this type of weapon. What does that mean ?
Let’s start with the F-16s. They have taken on symbolic importance, like tanks or Patriot missiles. Some people believe that providing F-16s will change the course of the air war. I think it’s very unlikely. First, it will take at least a year, maybe more, to train the Ukrainians to use the F-16s. Especially for maintenance, to set up a supply chain. The F-16s are very expensive, costing $100 million each and very vulnerable when on the ground.
A better way would be to upgrade the devices Ukrainians already have. We would already do a lot by equipping them so that they can fire NATO ammunition. But I nevertheless think that the F-16s have become so symbolic that there will no doubt be an agreement like the one with the United Kingdom. We will train some pilots. We will talk about supplying them in the long term with planes, but not immediately. We will do other things with the planes that the Ukrainians already have, which will move much faster.
And long-range artillery ?
Himars launchers can fire short range missiles, guided missiles and of course longer range missiles (ATACMS). The United States is very reluctant to provide them because of their ability to strike deep into Russian territory. And this is one of the red lines that Putin has defined. That, I believe the United States will firmly reject and may look for other ways to allow the Ukrainians to conduct these strikes. Perhaps by providing technical support so that they can develop local drones, systems that will do the same thing, but without using American weapons.
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