Delaying the purchase of a home until next year will mean a price reduction of between 2% and 5%

The price middle of the house in Spain it will drop between 2% and 5% in 2024 due to the 10% drop in demand expected for the first half of the year caused by the increase in the cost of mortgages and the difficulties that banks have in granting them.

The most optimistic data on the drop in the cost of real estate is given by analysts at donpiso. They estimate the fall in prices in the 5%. “This downward trend is a logical consequence of several factors such as the rising inflationthe rise in mortgages and the lack of security and economic and legal stability for real estate investment, as a consequence of the Housing Law“, Explain Emiliano Bermúdez, deputy general director of donpiso.

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For their part, the analysts of Bankinter They also predict a drop in housing prices for next year, but less, and 2%. They explain this decline by “an environment of high interest rates”. The downward trend, in their opinion, will last little, since they hope that by 2025 prices will rise againspecific and 1%.

The expected drop in prices for next year means that those who wish to buy a home and are not in a hurry to do so would find it more profitable to delay the operation until next year to get some more competitive prices.

One factor to take into account is that the price drop will not be homogeneous. According to donpiso experts, “the market will continue with its dynamism in the big capitals such as Madrid, Barcelona, ​​Málaga, Valencia, Seville or Bilbao and in their metropolitan areas.”

Also Ferran Font, director of Estudios depisos.comrecognizes that “the demand trend towards urban concentration will keep the pulse in the main capitals, where only homes that leave aside rehabilitation could adjust their prices.”

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Next year’s price drop will occur in a scenario in which the housing offer for sale will continue shrinkingfollowing in the wake of 2023. According to data from idealista, the supply of homes for sale has been reduced by 4% in the third quarter of the year compared to the same period in 2022.

The downward trend in prices estimated for 2024 contrasts with the increase that occurred in 2023, which has skyrocketed the cost of housing between January and October by 8,3%until placing the price of the square meter in the 2,120 euros.

Analysts predict that the real estate market will close 2023 with 580,000-585,000 sales of homes, around a 10% less. However, in the opinion of Ferran Font, we must “avoid alarmist messages and assume that the purchasing conditions last year were more attractive, so the 2023 adjustment must be understood as a return to normality, not as a collapse”.

He anticipates that until first half of 2024 we could continue watching negative numbers at the close of operations, but in the second semester, if the labor market does not give surprises and inflation is controlled, “a smooth comeback“, despite this the year will close with an estimated drop from among the 3% and 4%until reaching 550,000-560,000 operations.