Defense expert Ko Colijn has been providing the Dutch with information on armed conflicts for almost fifty years. For NU.nl he follows the battle in Ukraine and answers our (and your) questions. This time he talks about last week’s rocket impact in Poland. That missile literally and figuratively crossed a border, but in the end NATO reacted remarkably calmly.
By all accounts, the rocket’s impact on a barn just across the Polish border is nothing short of a painful accident. A case of border crossing. General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg of the
WITH THEM thinks on purpose. He and US President Joe Biden She said also that we should rather think of air defenses than a Ukrainian missile and that we shouldn’t look at Russia.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was angry and immediately pointed to Russia. Even before any research took place. He later downgraded the allegation to “very probable” because he didn’t want to openly argue with his aides. Yet there is something strange about reading Stoltenberg and Biden.
Stoltenberg said the missile was not Russian, Biden did not say “Russian” but “from Russia”. An important Biden moment, perhaps. But his comment does not rule out the possibility that Ukrainian separatists fired the missile, that the missile was fired by the Russians from occupied Ukrainian territory, or that it was fired by someone from another country (e.g. Belarus). I have no clues about it, but I can’t completely rule it out yet.
It was inconvenient that Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov asked the American president Well done he gave for his “controlled” answer. Poland has been accused of “hysteria” by Russia. Peskov was unaware at the time that Poland did not even name Russia as the culprit.
Even the weak version of Article 5 (NATO’s automatic mutual aid obligation) was not activated by Poland. If a NATO member state senses danger, it can convene an emergency meeting under Article 4. Not even Poland. Although some experts expected it. Perhaps Article 4 was not used to spare neighboring Ukraine, but perhaps also to put out any flames in Moscow in advance.
Noses in the same direction
What also gnaws is the second one Politic On Friday, an urgent telephone call from Washington was sent to all NATO capitals. The message was not to speculate on the origin of the missile, everyone was to keep their mouths shut. Unity in ranks seemed to be the motto. Particularly on the part of the Baltic states, which initially reacted ferociously, the silence was later noticed.
Of course, the Polish government got a pat on the back. Also, nearly everyone said with relief that the response was calm and composed. It seems to me very sensible, but not spontaneous unanimity. There seemed to be tight control.
Later there was some confusion in the contact between Poland and Ukraine. First, Zelensky asked to join the Polish-American investigation into the missile impact. No, was the Polish answer. He then he knew Defense News on Thursday that Ukraine was not “invited”. Shortly thereafter it was announced that Ukraine could apparently invite itself, because it had been allowed to verify the Polish-American results.
The authoritative site Law he pointed out that there is also a difference between an intentional form of assault and an unintentional incident. The latter actually doesn’t even deserve the name of aggression, so an alliance cannot demand a duty of defense.
Did he not want to add fuel to the fire? Then I have not read or heard anything from Article 42-7 of the EU Treaty. This is much stronger than Article 5 of the NATO treaty, by which the US, Canada and the UK are bound. 42-7 is an (explicit) obligation of military support. Since Poland is a member of the EU, every member, including the Netherlands, could have been forced to provide military aid. But no: nothing has been known about that European trajectory. Europe sidelined.
Similarities to the Nordstream explosion
Finally, there is the mysterious explosion that destroyed the Nordstream gas pipeline on September 26th. To de-escalate, no formal charges have ever been brought against Russia. While it is an open secret that the author must be sought there.
In the back of my mind, the thought that the United States was not in the mood for a major conflict gnaws at me. The Americans have already signed an agreement with the Russians on March 1st. In it they agreed to avoid conflicts born of mistakes. Noses in the same direction. Keep yourself small.
