Defense expert Ko Colijn has been providing the Dutch with information on armed conflicts for almost fifty years. For NU.nl he follows the battle in Ukraine and answers our (and your) questions. This time he discusses developments in the run-up to a Ukrainian offensive.
Wednesday was the interview with President Volodymyr Zelensky. He suddenly declared that the long-predicted spring offensive is still some time away. That must be “carefully prepared”. And Ukraine says it has not yet received all the weapons it needs from the West.
That last one is especially weird. The US Department of Defense and NATO boss Jens Stoltenberg showed themselves earlier satisfied with arms deliveries to Ukraine. According to them, there are now 5,300 combat weapons and more than two hundred tanks in the country. Ukraine must now be ready for battle.
Ontvang meldingen bij belangrijk nieuws over de oorlog in Oekraïne
At the same time, it is not surprising when you consider that Ukraine wants even more weapons. In addition, there is still a (small?) difference of opinion about the final goal of the Ukrainian counter-attack. All Russians out or enough with a compromise at the negotiating table?
Zelensky clearly wants the first, in the US people are thinking of the second. This also with a slanted eye on the uncertainty that may follow a Republican victory in the presidential election in 2024. What will American support look like, for example, if Donald Trump is president again? In any case, publicizing that difference of opinion is not very beneficial to the war against Russia.
‘Hassle’ around Bakhmut
A second ‘strange’ development is the Bakhmut fuss. At first, rough-hewn mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin said he would withdraw his men if the official Russian army did not supply him with enough ammunition. He would put the ‘war booty’ on Putin’s doorstep.
Then he said again that threatening to withdraw was just a game. Prigozhin claimed he had already made arrangements with Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov. The Chechens would take over the fighting around and in Bakhmut from the Wagner Group.
That payment never came. Suddenly it was no longer needed, because the Kremlin agreed to supply grenades to the Wagner Group. That turned out to be only 10 percent of the promised stock on arrival. Reason for Prigozhin to once again call Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu a traitor.
Prigozhin then bellowed again at Putin in a video that he was losing grip on Bakhmut. This became apparent, among other things, through the loss of an entire brigade with motor vehicles at Bakhmut. Putin would have liked to have conquered the city definitively on May 9, Victory Day, but that did not happen.
Long-range weapons for Ukraine
A third development is that it is no longer out of the question for the West to supply long-range weapons to Ukraine. But the US still doesn’t feel like it. Then the genie is out of the bottle and you may cross a Putin red line. The White House does not want a war with Russia.
The embassy in Washington confirmed to me that thick textbooks are also needed for the training of F-16 pilots. Because it contains secrets, an American license is therefore also necessary. The Americans refuse, even though some are in favor of delivery.
As a cloth for the bleeding, the US now has the GLSDB-bom promised (and almost delivered). This gives Ukraine a range of 91 kilometers. That was first ‘only’ 50 kilometers.
Now the British have discovered a goat path. Actually a goat path to another goat path, but the result can be spectacular. Their Stormshadow is a cruise missile with a range of 300 km, and would fit on a MIG that Ukraine has already received from Poland. This would circumvent the American ‘no’. No F-16s needed.
British can kill two birds with one stone
The British have two main reasons for supplying the Stormshadow. First, they are helping Ukraine get the weapons to launch their spring offensive. Ukraine can reach Crimea with cruise missiles. Then important hubs further behind the front lines will also come into view for the Russians.
The British would also pay for the delivery of Stormshadows from the shadowy International Fund for Ukraine. That is a British-Norwegian piggy bank, to which the Netherlands also contributes.
Secondly, the British put pressure on the Americans to agree to those F-16s anyway. The British previously pulled the same trick with the delivery of tanks. After they delivered a few Challenger tanks, the US had to come over with its Abrams tank.
No place in Russia unreachable
Ukrainian pinpricks with cruise missiles and drones were almost laughingly denied by Kyiv. But Putin spoke of terrorist activity in his angry May 9 speech. The attacks, including the alleged drone attack over the Kremlin, meanwhile show that no place is out of reach for Ukraine. Then you can also deliver those Stormshadows.
This allows the puzzle pieces to fit together. Ukraine adjusts its offensive a bit in the spring and gets the weapons it wants. Russia, meanwhile, is becoming increasingly nervous about this. Prigozhin doesn’t really feel like it anymore because his mercenaries are being slaughtered. And oh yes, when asked whether the Netherlands wanted to help Ukraine with F-16s, Prime Minister Rutte said: ‘We are on our way.’
1:002023-05-14 11:01:00
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