There has been no rebound from the epidemic. The new indicators unveiled this Thursday by the Minister of Health, Olivier Véran, during the presentation by the government of the second phase of deconfinement , show that the coronavirus now circulates very discreetly, even if it is still present throughout the country and can wake up in case of recklessness. During the press conference, the Prime Minister, Edouard Philippe, estimated that the circulation of the virus was ” under control “. “We are where we hoped to be at the end of May, even a little better”, he welcomed.
He nevertheless called for vigilance, because of the persistence of epidemic foci , and because the virus, which is particularly aggressive in confined spaces or in the most vulnerable populations, still mobilizes 30% of ordinary capacity in intensive care beds in hospitals. While four regions were flashing red on the deconfinement map on May 7, there are now only two departments that have not gone green, Val-d’Oise and Mayotte. The Grand Est, in particular, has emerged from its health nightmare.
VIDEO. Deconfinement: the main announcements of Edouard Philippe
Moderate incidence in the population
But in three weeks, the government statistical apparatus was refined, and Olivier Véran unveiled new indicators. Finally, we have an idea of the impact of Covid-19 on the entire population, thanks to randomized tests, instead of being targeted at at-risk populations. The average ratio of people infected in a week per 100,000 inhabitants is 6.14, while the vigilance threshold has been set at 10 and the alert threshold at 50. Several departments remain vigilant, particularly in Ile-de-France de-France, but also on the rest of the map, depending on the clusters detected here or there.
Second indicator: the proportion of virological tests which prove to be positive within the framework of the “test, trace, isolate” strategy, which consists of reporting contact cases of carriers of the virus. The implementation of a new screening information system, common to hospitals and city laboratories, now provides an overview. While the vigilance threshold is 5%, the national positivity rate has fallen to 1.9%. It was 2.3% on Wednesday. The whole card is green.
Third indicator: virus circulation . The reproductive factor, that is to say the number of people infected by each carrier, did not jump despite the deconfinement. It is 0.77, versus 0.67 on May 11 , and more than 3 in early March. Since this factor is less than 1, this means that the epidemic is decreasing.
Finally, the fourth indicator is already well known: it is the occupancy rate of resuscitation beds. We can no longer speak of saturation anywhere, but the government has lowered the vigilance threshold from 60% to 40%, with a view to returning to normal. Ile-de-France is over 40% in the orange zone, and Mayotte over 60%, the alert rating, in red.
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