17 Feb 2024 at 05:04
With the death of Alexei Navalny, critical Russia has lost its most prominent opposition leader. Navalny is also not the first Putin critic to die prematurely. Is opposition still possible in Russia against President Vladimir Putin and his confidants?
“Opposition actually no longer exists in Russia. Except for the opposition allowed by the Kremlin,” Hans van Koningsbrugge told NU.nl. He is professor of History and Politics of Russia at the University of Groningen and director of the Netherlands-Russia Center.
“Dissidents are operating abroad. That group has grown since the war in Ukraine, but their influence is limited and their message does not penetrate into Russia. That was also the reason why Navalny returned to the country itself,” Van says. Koningsbrugge further.
Navalny spent some time in Germany before his return to Russia. He stayed there for treatment. Navalny was poisoned with the nerve agent Novichok by the Russian security service FSB in August 2020 during a flight to Moscow. That almost cost him his life. Navalny returned to Russia in early 2021, where he was immediately arrested.
According to Nicolaas Kraft van Ermel, the latter shows that opposition in Russia has long been virtually impossible. He is a Russia expert at the University of Groningen.
“That impossible did not only apply to Navalny, but to everything and everyone who tried to organize organized opposition,” says Kraft van Ermel. “That is why Navalny’s death will hardly change the situation in Russia.”
Navalny’s death ‘next chapter’, not ‘new chapter’
The two Russia experts do not comment on the question of guilt, but both argue that the regime in Moscow bears responsibility for Navalny’s death. “If he had not been imprisoned and prosecuted, he would still be alive,” says Kraft van Ermel.
“If you send someone in poor health to a penal colony in Siberia and put them in an isolation cell there, you accept that things can end badly,” Van Koningsbrugge adds.
According to the experts, Navalny’s death will therefore hardly have a deterrent effect. “People were actually already taking it into account,” says Kraft van Ermel. Van Koningsbrugge sees Navalny’s death as another chapter in the history of Putin’s repression rather than a new chapter.
French President Emmanuel Macron’s response to Navalny’s death was similar: “In today’s Russia, free spirits are sent to the gulag and sentenced to death.”
Russian presidential elections on stage
Van Koningsbrugge is adamant about the question of what options dissidents in Russia currently have: “None.” “If you have been risking jail for years for sticking a protest sticker on the wall, what are the chances for opposition?” he asks out loud.
Russian authorities immediately warned citizens on Friday not to participate in demonstrations following Navalny’s death.
Moreover, Kraft van Ermel hardly sees any notable opposition figures who are still active. Although more candidates than just Putin are participating in next month’s Russian presidential elections, experts say this is just for the stage.
“These are candidates who do not matter, or who are on the list to give the impression that there is actually something to choose from,” says Kraft van Ermel.
That situation will not change quickly, both experts say. “For that you need a major revolution. Not just the end of the Putin era,” says Kraft van Ermel. Van Koningsbrugge: “And what replaces it is probably not to our taste either.”
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Navalny jokes day before his death in prison
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2024-02-17 04:04:00
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