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Published on: 04/09/2020 11:00
The first global estimates of the pandemic in the coming months do not bode well. According to the experts ofInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (Ihme) at the University of Washington School of Medicine, in fact, in 2020 we will have “a deadly December”, with peaks of deaths that can reach 30 thousand per day in the world. This is what emerges from the report with the first global projections on the pandemic, which however also highlights the power of anti-Covid measures: experts predict that almost 770 thousand lives around the world will be saved between now and January 1, through the use of masks and respect for social distancing.
Cumulative deaths expected by January 1 amount to 2.8 million, about 1.9 million more from now until the end of the year. For Italy – which is not in the top ten of the nations that will count the highest number of total victims (in this case India is in first place) and for inhabitants – the current projections estimate that total deaths will reach 56,071 by January 1, with just under 500 deaths per day in December, strongly contrasted with the universal use of masks and respect for distancing. “These first world projections by country offer a daunting forecast and a roadmap for the progress of the epidemic that government leaders and individuals can follow,” said IHME director Christopher Murray. “We are facing the prospect of a deadly December, especially in Europe, Central Asia and the United States. But the science is clear and the evidence irrefutable: wearing a mask, respecting distancing and limiting social gatherings are essential to help prevent transmission of the virus “.
The Institute has modeled three scenarios: a “worst” one in which the use of masks remains at current rates and governments continue to relax the distancing requirements, which would lead to 4 million total deaths by the end of the year; a “better” one, with 2 million total deaths if mask use is near universal and governments will impose spacing requirements when the daily mortality rate exceeds 8 cases per million; is a “very likely” scenario which assumes unchanged measures, with a total therefore of about 2.8 million deaths.
The references to the 750,000 lives saved and the 30,000 deaths per day in December represent the differences between the “best” and “most likely” scenario. The increase in the number of deaths is partly due to “a probable seasonal increase in Covid-19 cases in the Northern Hemisphere,” the researchers explain. To date, in fact, the disease followed seasonal patterns similar to pneumonia and, if this correlation continues to hold, northern countries can predict more cases in the late autumn and winter months, experts reason. “People in the Northern Hemisphere need to be especially vigilant as winter approaches as coronavirus, like pneumonia, will be more prevalent in cold climates,” Murray said. “Looking at the disconcerting estimates on Covid-19, it is easy to get lost in the enormity of the numbers”, admitted the expert: “The number of deaths exceeds the capacity of the 50 largest stadiums in the world, a sobering image”.
In the most likely of the IHME scenarios, the nations with the most total deaths per capita would be the US Virgin Islands, the Netherlands and Spain. This scenario predicts 959,685 total deaths by January 1 in the Americas region, 667,811 in the European region, 79,583 in the African region, 168,711 in the Eastern Mediterranean region, 738,427 in the Southeast Asia region and 191,598 in the Western Pacific region.
“We all need to learn from the leaders of the countries where the virus has been contained, or where second waves of infections have occurred, and where swift action has been taken to prevent the loss of life,” Murray said. The expert also cautioned not to pursue the “herd immunity” strategy, which occurs when a large percentage of a community’s members become immune to the virus through infection and recovery. The “worst” scenario in these projections reflects a situation in which governments allow the virus to be transmitted without ‘restraint’ in the population, resulting in significant loss of life. “This first global forecast represents an opportunity to highlight the problem of herd immunity, which essentially ignores science and ethics and allows for millions of avoidable deaths,” Murray concluded. This is, according to the expert, “simply, reprehensible”.
by Margherita Lopes
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