There are less than four weeks before Americans wake up for what are described as the most important mid-term elections in history.
Most Americans see Donald Trump and the so-called MAGA movement as a threat to democracy. However, Republicans are close to taking full control of both chambers of the legislative Congress.
A TV cut 2 of the many polls that simply ask Americans how they should vote this year, shows deadlock. 48 percent say they will vote Republican, 48 percent Democratic.
Since Americans elect people and not parties, this number just says something about the mood of the American people. And good support for the Republican Party makes it visible that the party means different things to different voters.
An internal struggle between the Republicans
– Many Republicans still hope they can get rid of Trump, says TV 2 data analyst Terje Sørensen.
STOP AGAINST TRUMP: Liz Cheney presided over the congressional hearings against Trump. She has not been renamed. Photo: DAVID STUBBS
– The first example is Liz Cheney.
Cheney, the daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney, said she will leave the party if Donald Trump is named presidential candidate in 2024.
Which in turn is connected to how well Trump’s loyalists fare in the fall election.
– If Trump’s Republican skeptics were to emerge in the House of Representatives, that could cause problems for the former president, Sørensen says.
– But if the Republicans win the House with 20-30 representatives, it could consolidate the MAGA chief’s control over the Republican Party.
And so far, TV 2’s average opinion polls show that Republicans are likely to win this chamber by a margin of 19 seats.
In the Senate it is more equal. There, the Democrats are likely to lose their fragile majority.
Special situation in Georgia – again
The latest average of all TV 2 measurements gives Republicans a narrow majority with 50-49 seats.
– But there will only be 99 seats. Doesn’t the Senate have 100?
ANALYZE: Terje Sørensen’s calculations give Republicans a majority in both houses of Congress. Photo: Robert Reinlund / TV 2
– Yes, but we will not get a final result in Georgia on election night. There are three candidates who split the votes, says Terje Sørensen.
Thus history repeats itself since the last elections in Georgia. As long as none of the candidates get 50 percent of the vote, there will be a ballot between the two with the most votes during the winter.
However, today’s data shows that Republicans are likely to retain 50 Senate seats before elections are finally decided in Georgia.
Trump’s loyalists decide
– Trump will sell it as a personal victory, Sørensen says.
– He likes to pick the winners and has personally given his support to most Republicans in neighboring and decisive states.
GENERATING A SHADOW: Although Donald Trump is not in the ballot, he plays an important role in the November 8 mid-term elections. Photo: TOM BRENNER
All Republicans in this important election have received the support of Trump, what the Americans call approvals. Many of the candidates have wholeheartedly supported Trump, even arguing that the 2020 elections are invalid.
As the table below shows, it is also in a number of states. Hence, nothing is decided.
