The San Andreas Fault, which separates the North American and Pacific tectonic plates, could trigger the “Big One,” an earthquake of magnitude greater than 8.0. Cities like Los Angeles and San Francisco are at risk.
The San Andreas fault, one of the most studied and feared faults in the world, extends for approximately 1,300 kilometers from northern California in the United States to Baja California in Mexico. This fault marks the boundary between the North American and Pacific tectonic plates, with the capacity to cause devastating earthquakes, such as the feared “Big One.”
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What is the “Big One”?
There is a high probability that it will be recorded in the coming decades.
The “Big One” is the name given to a future large-magnitude earthquake that scientists estimate could exceed 8.0 on the Richter scale. This catastrophic event is expected at some point along the San Andreas Fault, causing massive destruction in several cities on the West Coast of the United States.
Although it is not possible to predict exactly when it will occur, experts have pointed out that there is a high probability that it will occur in the next few decades, causing great concern among authorities and residents of the region.
The seismic history of the San Andreas Fault
Throughout history, the San Andreas Fault has been responsible for numerous earthquakes. Among the most notable are:
- 1857: A major earthquake struck Southern California, severely affecting the region. This event marked the beginning of a series of studies into the seismic behavior of the fault.
- 1906: The famous San Francisco earthquake, with an estimated magnitude of 7.9, caused massive devastation, leaving thousands dead and destroying much of the city.
These historic events have allowed scientists to better understand the dynamics of the San Andreas Fault.
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When could the next “Big One” happen?
They tend to occur every 150 years
Based on geological studies and historical patterns, experts have estimated that large earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault tend to occur every 150 years, suggesting that the next “Big One” could occur within approximately 30 years. Although there is no precise date, the constant seismic activity in the region has led researchers to warn that the risk is latent and cities must be prepared to deal with the consequences of an event of such magnitude.
Which cities could be affected?
The impact of the “Big One” will depend largely on the location of the epicenter and the magnitude of the earthquake, but the most vulnerable cities include:
- Los Angeles: With its high population density and location close to the fault line, Los Angeles would suffer severe damage to its infrastructure, including the destruction of buildings and collapse of utilities.
- San Francisco: With a history marked by destructive earthquakes, this city is another of the main areas at risk. Its proximity to the San Andreas Fault makes it a critical point for future earthquakes.
- San Diego: Although located further south, San Diego is also vulnerable, as the fault passes close to the city, which could cause significant damage to its infrastructure.
In addition to these major cities, smaller towns such as Palm Springs, Bakersfield and Santa Cruz could also be severely affected.
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Anticipated damage and prevention measures
The “Big One” could cause the destruction of up to 17,000 concrete buildings in high seismic risk areas
The “Big One” could cause the destruction of up to 17,000 concrete buildings in high-risk seismic zones in California, as well as disrupt critical services such as water supply and telecommunications. The California Earthquake Authority (CEA) and the United States Geological Survey (USGS) have stressed the importance of preparedness. This includes retrofitting buildings to withstand earthquakes and implementing emergency plans at both the government and community levels.
Authorities are urging people to take preventive measures to mitigate the effects of a possible earthquake. These include preparing emergency kits, identifying safe areas within homes and strengthening structures.
The future of the San Andreas Fault
Experts agree that the San Andreas fault has the potential to generate a devastating earthquake within the next 30 years. In addition to the “Big One,” other nearby faults, such as the Hayward fault in San Francisco Bay and the Newport-Inglewood fault in Southern California, are also expected to activate, increasing the risk across the region.
