Claus Mathiesen is often asked what it takes for NATO to be drawn into the war between Russia and Ukraine. He tells Dagbladet that he can imagine three scenarios that could make it necessary for NATO to enter.
Mathiesen is an associate professor at the Danish Defense Academy and has taught Russian language, culture and military affairs for over 40 years. He has also been the Defense Attaché in Ukraine for a number of years.
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Scenarios
– The first scenario is if the war drags on and there are more and more reports of abuses against the civilian population from the Russian invasion force.
– The second scenario is whether Russia decides to carry out an attack with the intention of punishing one of the countries that either supplies weapons to Ukraine or plays the role of intermediary for arms deliveries to Ukraine – weapons that increasingly go from being defensive to more powerful.
– The third scenario is whether the war turns in Russia’s favor with the prospect of total Russian control in Ukraine, including a regime change and the establishment of a pro – Russian government.
On April 10, the Russian Ministry of Defense released a video of what is to be the KA-52 combat helicopter, claiming it had destroyed several Ukrainian weapons and military equipment. Video: Reuters
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– Serious, but unlikely
However, Mathiesen does not have much faith that NATO will be drawn into the war in Ukraine.
– Despite the fact that the scenarios are serious, I consider that they are either unlikely or that it is inconceivable that they will force NATO into the war, he says to Dagbladet and continues:
– If they should occur, it will naturally put a lot of pressure on the political decision-makers, but the overall line that has been set by the United States and formulated by President Joe Biden is not expected to be broken.
Mathiesen concludes:
– NATO will not risk a major war with Russia with all the consequences it may have for the populations of the countries involved.
