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Dangerous Signals: Indonesia’s Shift Towards the United States and its Impact on South China Sea Stability

The BRICS summit finally decided to invite Argentina, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iran, Egypt, and Ethiopia to join, but Indonesia, which had been favored by all parties before, was not selected.

The expansion of the BRICS is far beyond the expectations of the outside world. It may be the result of the compromise between the five founding countries, especially the compromise between China and India. Bloomberg reported that India and Brazil raised objections to the admission of Indonesia and Saudi Arabia into the BRICS. That is to say, China should take a positive attitude towards Indonesia’s accession to the BRICS. However, India and Indonesia are both Asian countries with large populations. India opposed Indonesia’s participation. In the end, China, out of consideration for the overall situation, hoped that the BRICS organization would expand successfully.

He Wenping, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, commented that Indonesia, which failed to join the BRICS, seems to have cast its grievances on China, and instead made peace with the United States, trying to provoke trouble in the South China Sea.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Austin received Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo at the Pentagon on Thursday (August 22), and the two sides reached a consensus on defense cooperation. The statement issued by the Pentagon pointed out that the defense ministers of the United States and India agreed to enhance defense capabilities and help Indonesia realize the modernization and upgrading of the military, including fighter upgrades and the provision of new multi-role fighter jets.

US Secretary of Defense Austin and Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo reached a consensus on defense cooperation.

The statement also deliberately mentioned the South China Sea issue, saying that both the defense ministers of the United States and India believe that China’s claims in the South China Sea “do not conform to international law.” “

Prior to this, the Indonesian Air Force and Boeing signed a memorandum of understanding, confirming that Indonesia will purchase 24 Boeing F-15EX fighter jets.

On Monday (August 21), Indonesia also announced an agreement with US arms manufacturer Lockheed Martin to purchase 24 transport helicopters for an undisclosed amount.

He Wenping said that judging from the consistent style of the United States, India’s provocative remarks on the South China Sea issue at this time should be one of the conditions written into the agreement to purchase F-15EX fighter jets. But no matter what, the changes in Indonesia are a dangerous signal for China.

He Wenping believes that it is well known that the United States is behind the recent Ren’ai Reef incident, which has stirred up troubles in the South China Sea. At this time, the United States and Indonesia have come up with a joint statement, obviously trying to provoke another battlefield and drag China into the quagmire. It should be pointed out that Indonesia has always been relatively positive on the South China Sea issue. It has repeatedly proposed to step up negotiations on the code of conduct in the South China Sea, and all parties have worked together to reach a consensus to stabilize the situation in the South China Sea. Now the Indonesian military is negotiating peace with the United States, which means that the situation in the South China Sea shows a slight sign of stability, and the United States has planted a time bomb, which may explode someday.

Take the Philippines as an example. When Philippine President Marcos visited China, he promised not to let the United States become a third party and to negotiate with China to resolve differences and disputes. However, as the Philippine military and the U.S. military continue to strengthen ties, Marcos’ tone has gradually become tougher. From accusing China of violating sovereignty, to now forcibly promoting the reinforcement of the warships on the Ren’ai Reef, these actions can be traced. Commonly seen in the US military.

He Wenping believes that once Indonesia is completely pulled into the pirate ship by the United States, it can even be said that there will never be peace in the South China Sea. Because the United States’ South China Sea strategy is very clear, which is to force countries in the region to choose sides and take sides through various means, and use this as a strategic fulcrum to intervene in the South China Sea issue. As the rotating chairman of ASEAN in 2023, Indonesia is a key country in promoting the negotiation of the South China Sea code of conduct. It is foreseeable that without Indonesia’s support, there will be numerous obstacles on the way for regional countries to reach a consensus with China.

The key issue is that Indonesia’s fall to the US camp will further complicate the regional situation, and no one can guarantee whether other countries will follow suit for their own interests. From this, we can also understand why Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Singapore, Malaysia and Cambodia before, and constantly emphasized that countries in the region should be vigilant against the black hands behind the scenes and take the initiative to control the dominance of peace and stability in the South China Sea.

According to the WeChat official account of the Chinese embassy in Indonesia on August 27, the spokesperson of the embassy in Indonesia answered questions from local media about the South China Sea-related content of the “Joint Press Statement of the US Department of Defense and the Ministry of Defense of Indonesia” recently released by the US Department of Defense, expressing attention To the relevant information released by the US Department of Defense.

However, according to the Indonesian side, the content in the US press release that “both parties agree that the expansionist maritime claims of the People’s Republic of China in the South China Sea are not in line with international law as embodied in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea” is not true. In fact, you can take a look at the press release released by the Indonesian side on the meeting between the defense ministers of Indonesia and the United States. There is no such content at all.

The spokesperson said that maintaining peace and stability in the South China Sea and focusing on development through unity and cooperation are the common aspirations and common interests of countries in the region, including China and Indonesia. Countries outside the region should respect this. We oppose the actions of certain countries that disregard the well-being of the people in the region and try their best to sow discord and stir up trouble.

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The discharge of nuclear waste water in Japan has led to a drop in the number of mainland tourists visiting Japan, and Japan’s pan-tourism economy may be shrinking.

After China’s Ministry of Culture and Tourism opened up tour groups to Japan on the 10th, Japan has become the most popular destination for outbound tourism during the “October 11 holiday”. However, with the discharge of Japanese sewage into the sea, Japan tour groups have begun to withdraw, and travel agencies are no longer vigorously promoting Japan tours, and the National Day tourism market is also undergoing changes.

Before the epidemic, the number of mainland tourists and the amount of consumption both ranked first in Japan. AP profile picture

According to Japanese official data, in 2019 before the epidemic, 9.5943 million mainland tourists traveled to Japan, ranking first in Japan in both number of visits and spending.

According to data from China’s largest travel platform “Ctrip”, the search volume for group tours in Japan has surpassed that of Thailand and Singapore, ranking first in outbound travel; A product attracts customers. Previous data showed that before and after the November holiday, Japanese tourism was expected to usher in an explosive period.

The person in charge of Ctrip Group Tour Japan pointed out that the bookings of Japanese group tour products last week increased by nearly 90% month-on-month, and the recent reservations for Japanese group tour products departing on October 1 increased by more than 5 times.

The top 3 on the travel platform’s hot list are no longer Japanese tourism.

However, on August 26, domestic media reporters inquired about large Chinese travel platforms such as Ctrip, Tongcheng, Tuniu, and Lvmama and found that although Japanese tourism products were still on sale, they were not placed in prominent positions. At the same time, many tourism companies According to sources, some guests have already started to leave the group.

A person in charge of a large travel agency said that in the past few days, some customers have successively received withdrawals from Japan tour groups, and some customers originally planned to travel to Japan during the November holiday, but now they are also waiting and waiting, and have not placed orders in time.

Ms. Li, a consumer, said, “Originally, I planned to travel to Japan during the National Day holiday, and I was already preparing visa materials, but after seeing the incident of sewage discharge into the sea in Japan these days, my friends and I began to reconsider the destination of our holiday travel. “

Many travel agencies have reported similar situations. In view of the current ferment of the “waste discharge into the sea” incident in Japan, many tourism companies said that in the next promotion, especially the travel route promotion plan for the National Day holiday, they will make adjustments and will not vigorously promote Japan tours for the time being.

“Reliable Tourism” CEO Zhang Zhining said in an interview with internal media that starting this week, Japan’s nuclear sewage discharge into the sea will have a series of impacts on the economic and trade exchanges between China and Japan.

From the perspective of the tourism market, Japan, which was originally included in the “third batch of outbound group tours”, is about to enjoy the consumption bonus brought by China’s National Day Golden Week. However, with the safety issues caused by the discharge of nuclear sewage in Japan, during the National Day Golden Week, the expectations of Chinese tourists traveling to Japan have been greatly reduced. Once Chinese tourists “vote with their feet” during the National Day, then for a long time to come, Japan’s pan-tourism economy may shrink due to the decrease of Chinese tourists.

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2023-08-27 02:31:17

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