<오늘의 미나리>
1. Macro
◆Main indicators (stock/bond/dollar/crude oil/gas/coin)
The three major indices start on a downtrend
Treasury bond decline.. 10 years 3.54% 2 years 4.17%
Crude Oil Down, Natural Gas Down
Gold rises, coins continue to fall
US Unemployment Claims/Philadelphia Fed Index
Weekly New Unemployment Benefits Claim
24.5 million cases… slightly above expectations
1.865 million continued claims for unemployment benefits
Higher than expected 1.825 million
April Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
-31.3… below expectations
Business activity declines more than companies increase
Employment remains stable
Price index first decline since May 2020
Wage increases expected to be small
◆Existing home sales
4.4 million, lower than expected 4.5 million
German PPI + UK Inflation Aftershock
German PPI 7.5% (9.8%) per annum
Monthly -2.6% (-0.5%) Inflation down, but
UK inflation fears continue
Only 19.2% of food increase rate in 1 year..45 years only
BRI Wells “The UK is not out of the crisis yet”
“Strike, household income problem”
A series of final interest rate hikes
China’s U-shaped rebound prospects
People’s Bank of China “U-shaped rebound this year”
CPI target set at 3% this year
“Equalization of Supply and Demand in China’s Economy”
“Consumer prices will soon recover…the problem DKSEHO”
“Showing Signs of Encouraging Real Estate Activity”
“Monetary policy stable after SVB aftermath”
◆Williams remarks from the previous day + Waller/Bowman/Mester/Bostik remarks
Comments from Fed officials
Williams: “Credit Conditions Worse During Banking Times”
“Inflation still high” May 25bp strength
Goolsby: “Watch out for another credit risk”
Issa Waller, Bowman, Master, Bostick
A series of public remarks… the direction of interest rates
Wall Street market analysis
Theotrade “Black Swan Start”
“Coin-Gold-Stock, Bond-Oil Relations Abnormal Signals”
“No hiding place, no diversification.. It will explode at any time”
“If you look at VIX, you can’t set a risk price.. Conceit”
Dropped to VIX 16.. only 1 year and 5 months
TD Securities “Weekly lowest point maintained for 5 years is broken”
“If it goes below 15, it’s a bull market.”
Lower S&P-VIX correlations taken into account
◆(10:30) Natural gas inventory
2. Performance
◆ (previous day) Tesla (+ SpaceX relaunch)/IBM/Las Vegas Sands
◆Tesla (TSLA) 1Q Concall Checkpoint
Tesla focused on securing demand rather than margin
“If autonomous driving grows, profitability will rise again”
Cybertruck Q3 delivery plan
Musk “Incredibly good product”
Tesla Addresses Macroeconomic Issues
Musk “Key interest rate, consumer demand impact”
Jack Kirkhorn, Tesla CFO
“Aim for a mid-20% gross margin”
Reduce unit production costs in Texas and Berlin
The factory investment itself is a factor hindering quarterly margins.
The ESS sector is also growing
CFO “Guidance on business performance comes in a few quarters”
Tesla buys Nvidia GPUs in bulk
“Data is our strength…FSD·DOJO growth”
AI/autonomous driving training supercomputer DOJO
Tesla “DOJO, possibility of external service”
4680 battery cell investment “as planned”
Investment and production cost savings compared to conventional batteries
There are still raw material cost issues
Musk: “Lithium price is falling”
Jack Kirkhorn CFO
Raw material costs to fall by the end of the year
CEO Elon Musk
“All cars will be electric”
What about the Twitter-Tesla synergy?
“Twitter X app will make buying a car easier”
Tesla’s Wall Street Investment Opinion Becomes Cautious
JP ‘underweight’ offer $115
“Increased inventory, worse cash flow”
Wells Fargo ‘Equal Proportions’ $170
Oppenheimer ‘neutral’ “short-term margin pressure”
Deutsche, BOA, Evercore ‘neutral’
Piper Sandler ‘Overweight’
“Obsession with 20% margin is unreasonable”
IBM sales of $14.3 billion (14.37 billion)
EPS $1.36 (1.27) performance improvement
“Deteriorating business conditions, the first half is over”
“Growth will improve by the end of this year. Cost control effect”
◆Las Vegas Sands (LVS) earnings announcement
Sales of 2.12 billion, EPS of $0.28
better-than-expected performance
“There will be more customers this year and next year”
“Macau and Singapore recovery tax”
Rising along with casino-related stocks
Deutsch “LVS surpasses other casinos”
‘Buy’ target price 69 -> $74
◆(Jeonjeon) TSMC/Philip Morris/AT&T/Union Pacific/American Express/Blackstone/East West Bancorp+Kikoff+Comerica+Phips Third
◆TSMC, sales of 16.72 billion dollars (17.04 billion dollars)
EPS $1.31 (1.22) Mixed earnings
“AI-related orders have increased significantly”
stock price rises
◆Philip Morris (PM) performance
8 billion in sales, $1.38 in EPS
◆AT&T(T) earnings announcement
Sales of 30.1 billion, EPS of $0.58
Net addition of 424,000 deferred payment subscribers in Q1
lower than expected
AT&T CFO
“Demand for telecommunications has slowed since the second half of last year”
Union Pacific sales of $6.1 billion (6.06 billion)
EPS $2.67 (2.58) above expectations
“Weather conditions were bad, but resilient”
“Liquidity has increased, but inflation has hit”
◆American Express (AXP) performance
14.3 billion in sales, $2.4 in EPS
Good sales, but poor profitability
“Expensive products sell well”
Where do American consumers spend most of their money?
39% growth in travel and entertainment spending
MZ spending also increased
Consumption increased by 28% from a year ago
But higher-than-expected provisioning
Earned $1.06 billion in the first quarter
Blackstone’s performance exceeded expectations
Revenue $2.49 billion (2.46 billion) EPS $0.97 (0.95)
“Uncertainty slows the deterioration of the trading environment”
Real Estate Fund Concerns Continue
Less than 2% of US office real estate
Significantly reduced from 61% in 2007
Performance of small and medium-sized bank stocks
Both Comerica revenue and EPS exceeded
Eastwest revenue misses, net profit beats
5th Third Revenue Miss, Net Profit Above
KICO’s earnings below expectations, in line with net profit
Deposits decreased by 4.45%, net profit increased by 8%
Unrealized loss on receivables, transfer of MMF, etc. remaining
“Future net profit, pay attention to deposit withdrawal tax”
◆ (Jianghu) BHP Group
Group performance after market close
Tomorrow is Procter & Gamble
3. News
Invested $2.2 billion in IKEA USA
IKEA invests $2.2 billion over three years in the US
Largest investment in 40 years of business
Establishment of on-offline omni-channel
Showroom-AR Platform Launch..Experience Mixed Speed
Opened 8 new stores and
Expanded product pick-up locations
Toyota launches two EV models in China + Ford fire
Toyota begins ordering EV sedans from China
Two types of EV to be launched in China next year
“Joint vehicle with FAW… Ordered 5,000 BZ3”
Price 2.46 million dollars.. SKWDKWU than last year
“Start production of hydrogen cars in Beijing next year”
CKDJQ Chamber accelerating its penetration into China
Ford F-150 Lightning Fire ‘Warning Light’
“Related to SK ON battery cell production”
◆Meta Personal Information Agreement
META pays 87 million Americans
Total Settlement $72.5 Million
‘Analytica scandal’ settlement application
Largest US data privacy lawsuit
US Facebook users without consent
Collection of personal information… Use of political advertising
-BBBY bankruptcy this week at the earliest
4. Report
◆Truist, TripAdvisor ‘Hold’
“Download considering travel prospects”
◆Pipe Sandler, Bath and Body Works ‘neutral’
“There is little room for further growth”
Raymond James, Capri ‘strong buy’
“Next year’s consensus will be lowered…the risk-reward level is attractive”
Jeffrey, Raytheon ‘on hold’ demoted
“Cash Flow Target Risk…Aerospace Profit Headwinds”
Wells Fargo, Emerson Electric ‘Overweight’
“Value advantage increases after uncertainty”
BOA, NetApp ‘Underperform’ downgraded
“Deteriorating demand environment, slowing down of public cloud”
BOA, Citizen Financial ‘neutral’
“It is better to invest in other regional banks”
Barclays, Elanco ‘Overweight’
“Risk reduction and expectation of new product approval”
Redburn sells Charles Schwab
“Fed Aggressive Tightening Raises Challenge”
New York = Correspondent Jeong So-ram/Shin In-gyu ram@hankyung.com
