<오늘의 미나리>
1. Macro
◆Main indicators (stock/bond/dollar/crude oil/gas/coin)
Stock market leading to initial mixed trend
Bond yields fell slightly
Crude Oil Steady, Natural Gas Rising
Gold flat, coin rise, dollar index 101 lines
Conflict continues in US debt ceiling negotiations
Difficulties in debt ceiling negotiations
Republicans: Cut non-defense spending
White House Deputy Spokesperson ‘Sighs’
“Republicans Repeat MAGA Wishlist”
variable tax?
Possibility of early exhaustion of ‘special measures’ of cash and treasury
Most of the 18 days for U.S. tax payments
Tax revenue likely to exceed expectations
Number of building permits/starts in the US
1.413 million U.S. building permits in March
slightly below expectations
Housing starts fall in March
0.8% decrease from the previous month… Expectations increased by 0.4%
◆China’s GDP recorded record growth of 4.5% in 3 months
China’s first quarter GDP grew by 4.5%
Re-opening effect Tok Tok
4% above market estimates
The highest growth rate since the first quarter of last year
Chinese consumption also increased by 5.8% in the first quarter
10.6% increase in March alone
The average unemployment rate in Chinese cities in the first quarter was 5.5%
Quarterly ratio decreased by 0.1%p
Qualitative growth indicators fall short of expectations
China’s first quarter industrial production growth rate of 3.0%
UK employment indicators
UK jobless claims surge
2.82 million, well above the expected 10,000
Wages including bonus +5.9% (expected 5.1%)
Unemployment rate above 3.8%..3.7%
Highest fund manager bond share since 2009
BOA Global Fund Manager Survey
Bond weight 10%..highest since March 2009
US stock exposure rebounds from lows
84% “Global inflation will decrease”
58% “short-term bond yields will be lower”
80% “U.S. debt ceiling raised by September”
Cash allocation maintained at 5% or higher for 17 months
49% “investment grade bonds overtake high yield”
The next crisis is US, European commercial real estate
U.S. banks, U.S. debt, etc. followed
Positions are Big Tech Long (30%) Bank Short (18%) China Long (13%)
Short REITs (12%) European Equities (11%) Long US Dollars (5%)
CNBC All-America Economic Survey
69% of the public “The recession is over or coming soon”
63% of employed people “I have no worries about finding a job”
37% “Wages will increase in the next year”
81% respond to inflation “enter, reduce travel”
54% “Rising food prices are a big hit”
24% “Good time to invest in stocks”.. Lowest in 17 years
1 in 5 “Take action to benefit from high interest rates”
Wall Street market analysis
Prudence on Wall Street
JP “A 15% drop is possible even in a mild recession”
“Previous lows can be retested”
Tomley “The bottom of the EPS estimate…a sure bull market”
RBC Capital Markets “Stocks ignore recession”
“The first warning ignored since WWII”
“Last October Recession Prices Set to Low”
Year-end S&P target of $4,100.. EPS $200 higher
Citi “continuation of dollar weakness, investment in precious metals”
“Silver, perfect conditions for bullishness”
Weakness in developed countries, strength in emerging countries
If the real interest rate goes down, it is expected to rise significantly
28->$30 per ounce increase after 6 months
Mention of ETFs such as SIL, AGQ, and SLV
◆1:30 p.m. Michelle Bowman Speech
1:30pm Michelle Bowman Speech
Barkin “The US economy is holding up well” hawkish strength
2. Performance
◆Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) earnings announcement
Sales of 24.7 billion, EPS of $2.68
One-time costs related to ‘asbestos powder’
$68 million
Joseph Walk JNJ CFO
“All three divisions were better than the fourth quarter”
JNJ raises earnings guidance
Raises sales forecast by $1 billion more than January
JNJ Dividend Raised by 5.9%
Dividend decision of $1.19 per share
◆BOA earnings surprise
Revenue $26.3 billion (25.25 billion) EPS $0.94 (0.81)
NIM soars on rising interest rates
$14.4 billion, up 25% from the previous quarter
“Growing customer relationships..all business outcomes”
Non-interest income rose just 1%
Goldman Sachs earnings fell short of expectations
Revenue $12.22 billion (12.83 billion) EPS $8.79 (8.24)
Headwind due to high proportion of investment banks
Plunging fees for advisory services such as IPOs
Bond trading revenues also fell by 17%.
The only one on Wall Street that can’t make a profit from bonds
BOA increases bond yield by 30%
Real estate investment also hit $350 million
Interested in offering Apple-Goldman savings accounts
Increased share of retail business to pay attention to in the future
BNY Melon met expectations
Revenue of $4.4 billion, EPS of $1.12
◆Lockheed Martin (LMT) earnings announcement
15.1 billion in sales, $6.61 in EPS
“Improve some of the supply chain issues”
16% increase in space sales compared to the previous year
I thought sales would be low… better than expected
LMT January announcement consensus maintained
Plans for F-35 delivery?
156 units per year by 2025
Growth in global defense spending
Will new LMT orders increase?
◆(Zhanghu) Netflix/United Airlines/Omnicom
Netflix (NFLX) Earnings Announcement
Estimated sales of 8.17 billion, EPS of 2.86 dollars
Block account sharing, will it expand to North America?
Also pay attention to the performance of the advertising rate plan
United Airlines after the market closes
Omnicom results are also coming out
3. News
Brookfield Fund, commercial real estate warning light
12 offices near Brookfield, WA
Non-fulfillment of $160 million mortgage loan ..Occupancy rate 79->52%
“In pre-negotiation agreement with borrower”
Two other L.A. buildings also defaulted on debt
As remote work increases, vacancy emergency lights
Greenstreet “25% drop in office space in 1 year”
Growing U.S. BNPL
Increased installment payment (BNPL) in everyday life in the US
“Half of Americans experience using BNPL”
What do Americans buy on installments?
25% of the survey respondents said ‘buy groceries’
The reason for the increase after the BNPL pandemic is ‘high interest rates’
BNPL without interest for short-term installments
If you pay for the goods, your credit score will not be affected.
BNPL is the last choice?
70% of BNPL users have card debt
◆Tesla’s strategy in China + CATL, first application of sodium battery + Nio “No price war”
Tesla not attending the Shanghai Motor Show
Volkswagen, Benz ‘local target’
12 new EVs unveiled this week in Shanghai
14->10% market share despite a 5-fold surge in Tesla sales
Fierce Competition – Headwind of Declining Share
“The next model is designed and manufactured in China” opaque
China’s preferential tax rate also expires this year
“If there is no differentiation, the price can be lowered further”
Nio “Don’t cut prices, keep them high”
“Battery replacement, investing in charging stations”
Introduction of Driving Assistance NOP Plus Fee
“Attack European countries…export diversification”
China’s CATL first applied sodium battery
First to be installed in EVs of Chery Motors in China
New battery brand ENER-Q unveiled
“Lithium price 1-3%, endure sub-zero temperature”
Spur research on global companies such as BASF
CATL “Preparation for industrialization”..”Lithium demand declines”
GSK acquires Bellus Health for $2 billion
GSK acquires BLU.TO
Closed $2 billion deal
Acquired at $14.75 per share
Bellus Health closed at $7.26 on Monday.
Acquisition of treatment for chronic cough disease through this acquisition
GSK “We will continue our M&A work”
KRTX, XENE ranked first for M&A
Deutsche Bank targeting CS customers
Deutsche Bank aims for a ‘gap’ in CS collapse
“Double the PB revenue of Asia’s wealthy”
Entrepreneur goal with at least 50 million euros
Currently ranked 14th in the Asian asset market..”Manager +30%”
“HSBC, DBS, Chinese Merchant Bank Beneficiary”
Deutsche starts investing in the Southeast Asian market
4. Report
HSBC “Expecting to benefit from AI business”
NVDA ‘Buy’ investment opinion
“In 24 years, revenue growth will increase further”
“AI pricing power is less reflected in stock prices”
AI chips, 10 to 20 times the price of regular GPUs
“Even with a small increase in volume, a significant increase in profits”
Potential to offset weakening data center demand
Target price 175 -> $355
◆Wells Fargo downgrades Valero (VLO) and Marathon (MPC) investment ratings
Overweight -> Neutral
Less optimistic about refinery stocks
“Diesel and Jet Fuel Crack Spread Fall”
◆Key Bank “End of interest rate hike, borrowing cost is reduced”
Sunrun ‘overweight’ investment recommendation raised
“Low performance due to tightening cycle…Sentiment bottoming out”
“Expansion of market share in California…long-term growth”
Tax deductions on lower borrowing costs
Target price of $27..31.3% room
First Solar downgrades investment rating
“Price reaches upper limit in short term”
New York = Correspondent Jeong So-ram ram@hankyung.com
