What are the substantive differences between the candidates?
With corona infections reaching a new peak in the US, the reform of the US health insurance system, ‘Obamacare’, is more central than ever. Trump wants to make a new effort to do away with the healthcare system. Biden wants to improve the system by introducing the so-called ‘public option’. In addition, the government would market insurance that covers a broader package at a lower premium than most private insurers.
As little government interference as possible, that’s Trump’s adage. The Republican defends his 2017 tax cuts. Biden wants to increase taxes on everyone who earns more than $ 400,000 a year. Biden also wants to raise the corporate tax that Trump lowered. In contrast, Biden pledges to forgive hundreds of billions in student debt.
In terms of migration, Trump tried to take away protection for the ‘dreamers’ – who used to enter the country illegally as a child. Biden promises to clear the legal path to citizenship for them. He wants to drastically increase the number of refugees the US takes in annually from 18,000 to 125,000, as under Obama. He wants to stop the construction of the wall along the border with Mexico, the already built part remains.
In terms of climate, Trump is fully committed to employment. Biden – carefully – draws the green card. For example, he wants the US to accede to the Paris climate agreement again. He thinks there should be a ban on new fracking areas.
Does it matter to us Europeans who wins?
Less than you might think. Biden has announced that he will strive for a better relationship with the European Union and NATO, but he also says that you cannot ignore the fact that the EU and the US have conflicting interests. Like Trump, Biden will insist that European countries spend 2 percent of their GDP on defense. “The difference between the two is mainly in the style,” says professor and American expert Bart Kerremans (KU Leuven).
Internationally, Biden will restore the nuclear accord with Iran after Trump pulled the plug. European countries such as Germany and France have always argued for the preservation of that agreement. Like Trump, Biden will have to enter the trade battle with China. Safeguarding its own trade interests inevitably takes precedence over ties with the EU.
Which states should we keep an eye on during election night?
Americans do not elect their president directly, but through an electoral college that the president designates. For Trump and Biden, it comes down to getting at least 270 of the 538 electors behind them. In the majority of states, it is already clear whether the electors will go to the Democrats or the Republicans. However, everything revolves around the battle states: a handful of states where the map can be colored both blue and red.
Florida and North Carolina are classics. But then you also have the democratic industrial states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin, which Trump surprisingly managed to hijack four years ago. Conversely, Republican bastions such as Texas, Arizona and Georgia are now also counted among the fighting states.
“If Florida and Pennsylvania go to Biden, it’s in for him. Provided he also brings in the states that Hillary Clinton won in 2016, ”says Kerremans. If these states go to Trump, then Biden hasn’t lost yet. The Democrat will have to bring in Michigan and Wisconsin, who chose Trump four years ago. “We also look forward to Maine, Nebraska and Arizona,” says the professor.
What is at stake in the Senate?
Along with the presidential election, 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate will be voted on Tuesday night. At the moment, the Republicans have a narrow majority: 53 to 47. But of the 35 seats to be filled again, 23 are of them. “According to the polls, Republicans would lose three net seats, while Democrats would win three net. Then they come to 50-50. But there are a number of seats that are a dime on its side, ”says Kerremans.
The importance is enormous. If Biden beats Trump, he will have a much harder time pushing through migration or health care reforms in a Republican-dominated Senate. And vice versa. Since the Democrats already dominate the House of Representatives, there is a golden opportunity for them to control the president, the House and the Senate.
Who is going to win?
The cards are slightly better for Biden at the moment, but not enough to say he is going to win. Moreover, it is unclear to what extent the low-skilled voter, who is difficult to reach, was included in the polls. The Trafalgar Group polling agency, which takes this underrepresentation into account, correctly predicted Trump’s victory in 2016. Now it predicts another victory for the Republican.
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