“Czech President Warns Ukraine Against Launching Counter-Offensive Now, Former Defense Chief Believes it Could be Half a Russian Victory”

The Czech president warns Ukraine against launching a counter-offensive now. Former defense chief Sverre Diesen believes a failed Ukrainian offensive will be half a Russian victory.

Czech President Petr Pavel (61) believes that Ukraine no longer has the element of surprise necessary to succeed in a counter-offensive, according to the British newspaper The Guardian.

It came out in a meeting in Kyiv with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj and Prime Minister Denys Sjmyhal on 28 April.

Pavel chaired NATO’s Military Committee from 2015 to 2018. He was the first officer from a former Warsaw Pact country to be appointed NATO’s Supreme Military Leader.

At the meeting, Zelenskyy is said to have asked the Czech Republic to arm a Ukrainian mechanized brigade ahead of the long-awaited counterattack. But the president is said to have expressed that there were still gaps in Ukraine’s capacity for a successful offensive against Russian forces.

– Extremely harmful

– Apparently, Ukraine still has a feeling that they do not have everything to launch a successful operation, Pavel said at the meeting, according to the Guardian.

Pavel therefore appealed to the Prime Minister of Ukraine not to fall for the temptation to “be pushed into a higher pace before they are fully prepared”, according to the newspaper.

Pavel elaborated on his opinions in an interview in London, where he attended the coronation of King Charles III.

– It will be extremely damaging for Ukraine if this counter-offensive fails, because they will not have another chance, at least not this year, Pavel said.

VG’s reporter Kyrre Lien has traveled along the 1,000 kilometer front line:

– Knows what he’s talking about

– At least Petr Pavel knows what he is talking about and he has a point. He is a general, former Czech chief of defense and was also head of NATO’s military committee, says Sverre Diesen, general, former chief of defense and chief researcher FFI to VG.

But Diesen believes it is difficult to say whether Ukraine is sufficiently prepared for a counter-offensive.

– There will be a trade-off between having to meet the expectations of an offensive, which Ukraine has contributed to itself, and launching an offensive before they have received sufficient Western material and completed the necessary training.

This must be true before they can launch an offensive that can change the situation on the battlefield, he believes.

– How much pressure is Zelenskyj, from his own country, to carry out an offensive?

– Ukraine has categorically said that the offensive is coming, so there is very strong internal pressure.

Diesen believes that the best thing for Ukraine is to keep ice in the stomach and wait until they have enough material to be able to set up large enough forces to succeed in creating a new situation on the battlefield. In addition, the forces must be trained.

– Systemic weakness

– How prepared are the Russian forces for an attack?

– They have had plenty of time to prepare because they have mostly gone on the defensive along the defensive line in recent months. On the other hand, the weakness on the Russian side is systemic and primarily concerns resupply, personnel replacement and leadership. One can ask whether the Russians actually benefit from preparing more, says the former defense chief.

Diesen says it is difficult to say where a counteroffensive will come.

– What has been pointed to as the most ideal is an attack from Zaporizhzhya to the southeast towards Mariopol and the Sea of ​​Azov. A breakthrough here will isolate the Russian forces in Crimea, says Diesen.

– What will be the consequences if a Ukrainian offensive is not successful?

– In that case, they will risk losing much of the Western material they have received, and the chance will increase that there will be a standstill and a frozen conflict. It will strengthen the Russians’ belief that they will win the war of attrition that will follow. To fail with a counteroffensive will be half a Russian victory, he says.