The hurricane season is seasonal. It begins in June. The cyclones, hurricanes or typhoons, whose names vary according to their geographic location, are storms that change as soon as the wind speed exceeds 119 km / h. They are classified by category from 1 to 5 on the’Saffir-Simpson scale. Beginning of September 2019, Dorian (whose appearance was mentioned on August 24 and dissipation on September 10), classified level 5, pushed the anemometer to more than 300 km / h. Cyclones arise in the Tropics, above the ocean, when surface water, over a thickness of 50 m, reaches 28 ° C. The phenomenon takes care of this energy to become a thermal bomb, then, moves carried by the trade wind.
How are the indicators one month before the start of the season?
? “It looks bad …, analysis Yann Amice meteorologist and scientific advisor to the experimental ship ? Energy Observer forced stopover in the Antilles. The Antilles zone is currently breaking temperature records and, more worryingly, surface water temperatures on the Atlantic part and on the Gulf of Mexico are more than 1.15 ° C compared to seasonal standards. “
For Yann Amice, this type of configuration gives directions for an active cyclone season. “There are great similarities with the years 2010 and 2017 which were very active, with in 2017, eighteen cyclonic phenomena, including ten hurricanes, with six of them very active. “ Years go by and records follow one another. The meteorologist “forecasts” seventeen storms and nine hurricanes, at least four of which could be major.
Could the hurricane season start earlier this year?
Yann Amice does not exclude this hypothesis. ? “Temperature anomalies combined with significantly weaker trade winds than normal are all elements favorable to the birth of eddy movements on the Atlantic, even to a phenomenon which would take place in the Caribbean zone and which would go up towards Louisiana. ” Another worrying finding is that with the poles warming up faster, the high winds are less strong. However, cyclones move much less quickly with stronger winds and significant precipitation, which stay longer on inhabited areas.
Has containment had an impact on greenhouse gas emissions. Can it be a game-changer?
Planetary confinement is an epiphenomenon on a climatic scale. ? “It just makes it possible to dream of a world without emissions of greenhouse gases or other fine particles …” The inertia of the atmospheric machine is such that the process is etched in time. ? “This cyclone season 2020 presents itself from a particularly active angle, predicts the scientist. ? To this must be added the difficulty of the medical evacuations which will have to be carried out in the context of theCovid-19 outbreak. “
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