[Current Affairs and Military]The consequences of the war have shown that Russia’s prospects are bleak | Ukraine | Donetsk | Bakhmut

[The Epoch Times, March 5, 2023]In today’s society, weapons and the role of the army are given a deeper meaning than killing. Strong military power is often used as a deterrent to maintain world peace and human security. The war, though becoming covert, never ceased.[Current Affairs and Military Affairs]Take you to the forefront to see the details and truth of the struggle between good and evil.

A year into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, after a series of failures, some military ambiguity has finally been achieved in the city of Bakhmut, east of Donetsk. But this kind of progress accumulated with the lives of Russian soldiers cannot be described as any battle victory, because Ukrainian troops still control the situation on the front line, despite the huge pressure from the Russian army. No matter how hard the Russian army tries to reverse the local war situation, this war has painted a bleak prospect for Russia.

For four months, Bahmut had been a hotspot, Oleksii Danilov, secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, said on national broadcast news on March 2. “The situation is difficult, but we understand that this is our land and we must defend it. Despite the complex situation, where the fiercest fighting is taking place, it is still under our control. Russia is losing soldiers in large numbers every day, The number of Russian troops killed on the Bakhmut front was 7 times that of the Ukrainian army.”

In the past few months, Russian troops have continued to attack, trying to achieve a major “victory” that Putin has been waiting for for more than half a year, but Ukrainian troops are still sticking to their positions, making it difficult for the Russians to realize their wishes.

Alexander Rodnyansky, a senior adviser to the Ukrainian president, said that if the costs of holding on to Bakhmut outweighed the benefits, a pullout would be possible. “We have to weigh all options, and if necessary, we don’t rule out a strategic retreat, and we don’t sacrifice everyone in vain.”

The signal that Ukrainian officials are signaling a possible retreat appears to hand Moscow some sort of politically significant, symbolic victory and ostensibly the only advance Moscow has seen in months, but is of little military value and will not Changing the dynamics of warfare more broadly.

On the contrary, compared with the so-called “victory” of symbolic significance at Bachmut and the tragic loss of hundreds of soldiers by the Russian army every day, the victory that the Russian army has not yet achieved, even if it is achieved, can hardly be understood as a victory in the true military sense .

Alexander Downs, director of the Institute for Security and Conflict Studies at George Washington University, said the Ukrainians wanted to use Bakhmut to eliminate as many Russian forces as possible, and it was an appropriate place because the Russians were cooperating with the Ukrainians at any cost . But whether breached or surrounded, as long as you don’t risk losing a lot of troops, it makes sense.

Igor Girkin, a former Russian Federal Security Service official, said on Telegram on February 27 that even if Bakhmut is taken down, it will be absolutely nothing for Russia. The enemy’s front will not be breached, (Ukraine) will be able to restore the front on new pre-prepared positions. The months-long offensive against Bahmut could quickly deplete ammunition stocks.

Russian President Vladimir Putin may seize the opportunity to capture Bakhmut to spin a fictional story to continue his war effort after months of setbacks and the brink of collapse for the Russian military. Putin is eager to convince himself and those around him of his dream with facts. However, Russian soldiers are not necessarily overly excited about taking down a town, because it doesn’t necessarily have much strategic significance militarily.

The Institute of War Studies (ISW) believes that Ukrainian forces holding Bakhmut is a reasonable strategy, because it consumes a lot of Russian military resources and inflicts heavy losses on it.

Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar announced this week that reinforcements would be sent to Bakhmut, but did not say whether the troops would be used to cover the retreat or strengthen the defense.

At present, there is no sign of Ukrainian troops withdrawing. Publicly suggesting that the withdrawal may be a strategy of Kiev to cooperate with the spring counterattack that is in the process of preparation.

The consequences of the war in Ukraine depend on the course and eventual outcome of the conflict. While we don’t yet know what this end result will be, some consequences are already on the horizon.

First, this is a humanitarian disaster. While precise statistics are difficult to come by, recent estimates suggest that more than 30,000 Ukrainian civilians were killed or injured and more than 13 million Ukrainians were displaced. War crimes committed by the Russian military, especially Wagnerian mercenaries, have been the subject of investigations.

No matter what happens in Ukraine or Russia, some things seem to be heading now. If Russia achieves military success, it will likely lead to new and continuing international sanctions against Russia. Some sanctions would be deeper, broader and more effective than those imposed after the 2014 invasion of Crimea. If Russia’s war in Ukraine ends in failure, it could lead to escalation or a wider war that changes the world, and it could also lead to dramatic changes within Russia. Either outcome would make a very different world.

Russia’s reputation as a military power has been decimated by strategic miscalculations, incoherent tactics and the poor quality of its soldiers. If Russia achieves its goals on the battlefield through numerical superiority and brutal tactics, it has also exposed the actual combat capabilities of its army and weapons, and its conventional strength has been called into question. In contrast, Russia’s bigger problems are strategic misjudgments and tactical failures. On the battlefield it manifests itself in poor planning, training and a disregard for soldiers’ lives.

Russia’s weapons and equipment, which account for 20% of the world’s arms market, may lose their appeal due to the war, causing them to completely lose their status as a major arms supplier, or they may have to adopt methods of price reduction, cooperative production or technology transfer to maintain cooperation with traditional customers such as India. Arms trade relationship with China. In any case, the war reduced Russia’s salable equipment. Western sanctions and brain drain could further weaken the Russian military industry’s design and production capabilities.

The war cost Russia dearly. The mobilization of the army has drained a group of talents who might have been employed in economics, science and technology. These people were either conscripted or emigrated to avoid mobilization. The country has become more repressed, further stimulating the brain drain.

Russia is being alienated by the international community, losing influence in Europe over its energy exports. Once a new order is established in the world energy market, Russian energy may be abandoned by the larger international market, or be forced to send energy to markets further afield instead of trading with wealthy Europe through established pipelines. The energy infrastructure would need to be rebuilt, again adding to delivery costs.

The blockade of key technologies other than economic sanctions has a more fatal impact on its economy, especially the development and manufacturing capabilities of sophisticated weapons. If Russia continues or even escalates the war in Ukraine, it will make Russia face permanent changes in the economic landscape caused by losing export markets, restricting imports and technology blockade. This will cause Russia to decline rapidly, and will not be able to get out of the shadows for a long time and become a real third-rate country.

Russia lost 27 million people in World War II, distorting the country’s demographics for decades. Social unrest after the collapse of the Soviet Union has exacerbated Russia’s demographic woes, and Putin has made population recovery a national priority. Russia’s fertility rate is not the worst in the world, but it is one of the lowest in Europe.

The latest battle report released by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense on March 3 shows that the number of Russian soldiers killed in battle has risen to more than 151,370. This means that the total number of Russian casualties may exceed 300,000. Another roughly 400,000 Russians fled to avoid conscription, with some reports suggesting the number could be as high as 700,000. It’s not a simple matter of numbers, and there may be legions of the brightest and best minds among the fleeing crowd. The disappearance of hundreds of thousands of millions of military-age men from the Russian population is definitely not good news for Russia’s intensifying war. Further casualties, conscription, emigration and the foreseeable post-war veterans’ problems will all have conceivably negative consequences for Russian society.

The shadow of the disintegration of the Russian Federation seems to be looming not far away. A survey of global strategists and analysts by the Atlantic Council found that 46 percent of the 167 people who participated expect Russia to become a failed state in the next decade. 40% expect Russia to disintegrate due to reasons such as revolution, civil war or political change.

Some analysts believe that Russia’s decline is irreversible, but before a complete disintegration, Russia may first fall into dangerous fascist chaos or even civil war. This decline will bring new troubles for NATO, especially for countries surrounding Russia. What is worrying is that these speculations point to a country with thousands of nuclear warheads, which makes the world not take this country’s turmoil and bleak prospects lightly.

Written by: Xia Luoshan (a reporter from The Epoch Times, who has experienced more than ten years of military life, mainly engaged in military teaching and some technical management work)
Production: Current Affairs Military Production Team
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