Cruzeiro managed to get out of the relegation zone of the Brazilian Championship with the victory against Goiás, 1-0, this Monday (27), in Goiânia and managed to leave the Z-4. Which doesn’t mean that the star team isn’t at risk of falling to Series B. And from now on, what does the celestial team need to do to remain in the elite?
Cruzeiro is in 13th place, four positions above the relegation zone. It has three points more than Bahia (44 to 41), the first within the Z-4. Between Cruzeiro and Bahia, there are Corinthians (44), Santos (43) and Vasco (42). It is worth remembering that the first tiebreaker criterion is the number of victories – Cruzeiro reached 11, the same number as Santos, Vasco and Bahia and one more than Corinthians. The second criterion is goal difference and, in this item, Cruzeiro has an advantage over its main competitors – Cruzeiro has 3 positive. Corinthians and Bahia have minus four, Vasco, minus eight and Santos, -18.
According to the Statistics Department of the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG), a safer calculation to save yourself from the drop is to reach 47 points, which would only give a 1.7% chance of relegation. At 46, the risk rises to 10.3%. With the famous 45, the initial target of those thinking of escaping the fall, the chance today is 38.1%. In other words: in practice, if Cruzeiro beats Athletico-PR on Thursday (30), at Mineirão, it practically seals its stay in Série A. Cruzeiro also visits Botafogo, on Sunday (3) and hosts Palmeiras, on Wednesday ( 6).
Among Cruzeiro’s competitors, Bahia plays on Wednesday (29), against São Paulo, in Salvador. Cruzeiro, in addition to drying Bahia, Vasco, Santos and Corinthians, supports Fortaleza, which has 45. Vasco and Corinthians face each other this Tuesday (28), at 9:30 pm, in Rio, in a direct confrontation. On Wednesday, Santos hosts Fluminense, at 7pm, and Fortaleza plays on Thursday, away against Bragantino (8:30pm).
Also according to UFMG, Cruzeiro reduced the probability of a fall to 6.9%. Corinthians has 9%, while Santos has 12.7%, Vasco, 30.1% and Bahia, 38.5%. A little further away, but still with a reduced chance of falling, is Fortaleza, with 2.6%. Goiás has 99.8% and is close to Series B.
2023-11-28 02:11:28
#Cruzeiro #math #avoid #falling #rounds #TIME
