Reuters reported on Monday (31st) that crude oil supply has begun to tighten due to production cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners (OPEC+).Brent Crude OilThe price has continued to rise recently and has exceeded US$85 per barrel. Since the beginning of July, it has risen by more than US$10, approaching a four-month high.
Analysts at JPMorgan said this month that oil inventories, which include crude and fuel products, now play a bigger role in determining oil prices than the dollar, as Western sanctions on Russia accelerated non-U.S.-denominated oil transactions.
The bank pointed out that the OPEC+ collective production cut and Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional production cut of 1 million barrels per day starting in July are having the desired effect, and the tight supply of crude oil has emerged.The demand for going out in summer is increasing, and oil inventories are rapidly depleting, and it is estimated thatBrent Crude OilPrices are likely to rise to $86 a barrel by the end of the third quarter before slipping in the fourth quarter as inventories build.
However, the decline in inventories was uneven geographically, with declines in the U.S. and Europe offset by increases in China and Japan, and there is no sign of an overall decline in global onshore crude inventories yet.
Christopher Haines, an analyst at Energy Aspects, predicts that inventories will decrease relatively significantly in July, and the trend of increasing inventories will reverse by the end of August. We are currently on the verge of tight supply, and Saudi production cuts have accelerated this process.
Weekly stockpiles of diesel, jet fuel and fuel oil in the United States, northern Europe, Japan, Singapore and the United Arab Emirates were all below their five-year average, data from consultancy FGE Energy showed.
In addition, both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) predict that oil demand will exceed supply this year, and there will be a supply gap of hundreds of thousands of barrels per day in the second half of the year. Among them, IEA data showed that after global oil inventories rose in May to a new high since September 2021, recent signs of tight supply are emerging, especially in the United States.
Crude inventories at Cushing fell by 2.9 million barrels in the week ended July 14, the biggest weekly drop in a year and a half, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Separate data also showed that U.S. gasoline inventories currently stand at 217.6 million barrels, the lowest since 2015 and 5 million barrels below the seasonal average for the previous 10 years.
Before the deadline, due in SeptemberBrent Crude OilFutures rose 0.46% to $85.38 a barrel on Monday; West Texas Intermediate crude futures, which expire in September, rose 0.66% to $81.11 a barrel.
2023-07-31 15:08:43
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