The Iranians are called to the polls on February 21 for crucial legislative elections which should sign the return of the conservatives and increase the pressure on President Hassan Rohani already in trouble.
The poll comes as the Islamic Republic of Iran is under US sanctions that are suffocating its economy, and has been in recent months on the brink of military confrontation with the United States, its sworn enemy.
►►► Also read: Iran: Amnesty claims more than 100 protesters killed
disillusionment
No less than 7296 candidates for the 290 seats of the Parliament were disqualified against 7148 qualified by the Council of the Guardians, organ charged with the validation of the candidacies and dominated by the ultraconservatives.
At the end of January, Hassan Rohani, a moderate conservative, warned against the threats weighing according to him on “democracy”, after the disqualification of these thousands of candidates, most coming from the government coalition formed by the moderates and the reformers.
These disqualifications are “unprecedented”, estimates the independent journalist Farshad Ghorbanpour which underlines the disillusionment among the voters.
“The main difference from the previous elections is that before, the people believed that their votes would lead to reforms. This hope has disappeared for a majority of Iranians”he said.
“The majority of the current parliament is made up of reformers, and people believe that they have done nothing serious. The people concluded that their choice had no impact”, he adds.
Voters who supported Rohani may stay home on Friday, February 21, observers say.
Mostafa Hamidi, 37, a vendor at the Tehran bazaar, told AFP that he would not vote, saying he was disappointed “broken promises” politicians and the worsening economic situation. “Our vote is useless.”
Many residents interviewed by the AFP criticize the authorities for poor governance.
“Every time we voted things didn’t get better, they got worse”, says Morteza Jaberi, who has a spare parts shop in the poor Molavi district (south).
Elected in 2013 and then re-elected in 2017, President Rohani had promised more social and individual freedoms and assured that the Iranians would be able to benefit from the fruits of rapprochement with the West.
The abused nuclear deal
He was the instigator, for Tehran, of the international Iranian nuclear agreement concluded in 2015. This pact had enabled Iran, an oil country, to break out of its isolation with a reduction in international sanctions, in exchange for guarantees intended to prove that the Iranian nuclear program had no military aim.
►►► Also read: Iran and the 2015 agreement: a “war of numbers” before nuclear weapons?
But this deal has been threatened with being shattered since the unilateral American withdrawal in 2018 and the Washington reinstates sanctions who plunged the Iranian economy into a recession.
Wave of challenges
In addition, in mid-November, Iran experienced a wave of protests triggered by a surprise rise in the price of gasoline, which was put down. Amnesty International said at least 304 people were killed in the crackdown.
US killed in Baghdad drone attack in early January the powerful Iranian general Qassem Soleimani, and millions of Iranians have paid tribute to him in a spirit of national unity.
►►► Also read: who was General Soleimani, key man of Iranian influence in the Middle East killed by the United States
But that unit then cracked. After three days of denial, the armed forces admitted to having killed by “fault” a Ukrainian airliner (176 dead) after taking off from Tehran, which caused public outrage.
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Conservatives well placed
In the absence of real competitors, a large coalition of conservatives could largely win the legislative elections, the campaign of which began this Thursday in discretion.
Parliament, Iran’s main legislative body, drafts laws, ratifies international treaties and approves the budget.
Even if this assembly was “more and more sidelined in the decision-making process”, the arrival of ultra-conservatives could complicate the task for Rohani, notes Ellie Geranmayeh, analyst at the European Council for International Relations.
According to Henry Rome, an analyst on Iran at the Eurasia group, the Rohani government coalition has even little chance of survival.
“An ultra-conservative Parliament will torment Rohani during the last year of his mandate, question his ministers and complicate the government’s ability to respond to pressure linked to sanctions.”
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