NEW YORK – While Democrats celebrated a better-than-expected mid-term performance across much of the United States this week, New York has emerged as a notable exception where leaks and lackluster results have prompted a round of inner research and pointing the finger inside the party.
Republicans overturned four seats in Congress, including one held by Representative Sean Patrick Maloney, who led the Democrats’ campaign arm in the House. Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul, who took office last year when former Governor Andrew Cuomo stepped down, won her race against Republican Lee Zeldin in single digits. It was the closest government run to the state since 1994, when Democratic incumbent Mario Cuomo lost to Republican George Pataki.
There were also signs of Republican forays into the US Senate race. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, who is hugely popular in New York and is committed to visiting each of the state’s 62 counties each year, has faced his closest re-election since 1998. Although he generally won re-election by minus 30 points , Schumer’s victory over Republican Joe Pinion was less than half that Tuesday.
“We’ve done worse than the Democrats nationwide,” said Mark Levine, Manhattan borough president and Democrat. “I don’t think you can blame Joe Biden for what happened in upstate New York.”
Both Democrats and Republicans have pointed to a confluence of problems behind the results: a lackluster campaign and a slow response from Democrats to how Republicans have grasped fears of violent crime. A reorganization plan was supposed to help the Democrats, but it failed. The Republican Party has also made substantial gains in the suburbs and various urban neighborhoods.
Mayor Eric Adams addressed midterm elections Thursday after critics said he may have been at least partly responsible for Democratic struggles locally, with one claiming he “intimidated with so much success” that he could leading to the rise of Zeldin.
“I’m just waiting for Rod Serling. This is just Twilight Zone,” Adams said, fending off attacks. He said Democrats who have lost legislative contests in the House and the state should look in the mirror.
“Who should be to blame? Those who ignored the worry!” Adams said. “Eric was talking about crime, right! New Yorkers were talking about crime!”
Democrats have braced for setbacks elsewhere this week, most notably Florida, a once key state that has become more reliably Republican. But New York’s challenges were particularly disappointing because they occurred in a state where Democrats have twice as many registered voters as Republicans.
“It is one thing that the Florida Democratic Party is an absolute neutralized disgrace. It’s another thing to have serious problems in the Democratic Party in a state like New York, “said Democratic strategist Jon Reinish.
The first warning sign for Democrats came in the spring with the state district reorganization process, which Reinish called “a complete disaster from start to finish.”
The new political maps of the state produced by the Democrat-controlled legislature would have given the Democrats an advantage in 22 of the 26 House bids, but a court rejected them. The court sided with Republicans who claimed the maps were unconstitutionally rigged and hired an expert to design a more competitive map.
Republicans holding 8 of the 27 House seats this year are on track to hold at least 10 of the 26 New York House seats by 2023. It is too early to announce two more close contests, but Republican Party wins they included the trophy that ousted Maloney.
Initially, Zeldin, a Long Island congressman, was faced with severe difficulties against Hochul. His alliance with former President Donald Trump and his vote as a House member against certifying the 2020 election results should have been too toxic in New York, which hadn’t elected a Republican governor in 20 years.
But the congressman came close to success, causing a frustrated fight among the late Democrats.
While Republicans are disappointed they didn’t win the government race, the New York GOP is the most energetic in decades, said Chapin Fay, a former Zeldin adviser who led a political action committee this year working for make your way. Republicans with Hispanics. Asian Americans, Eastern Europeans, Jews and African Americans in New York City.
“New York is more purple than anyone would have suspected,” Fay said.
Zeldin tapped into crime fears and waged an aggressive campaign with frequent appearances in liberal New York to highlight shootings, stabbings and violence in the subway.
Hochul, who is the first woman to hold the office of governor of New York, has focused her campaign on defending the right to abortion and portraying Zeldin as too extreme. But when polls showed he was getting close to her in the past few weeks, the governor started talking more frequently about public safety.
New York crime rates are nowhere near the highs of recent decades, but they have risen since the pandemic. A series of high-profile violent incidents, including some fatal shootings and pushes on the New York subway tracks, have heightened fears.
“I don’t think we need to repeat Republican demagogy on this, but we need to tell a compelling story about what we’re doing to make the city and state safer,” Levine said. “We almost completely handed the matter over to the other party and they ended up being able to define the terms.”
Jay Jacobs, president of the New York State Democratic Party, defended the party’s campaign, saying many critics were sitting on the sidelines.
He said the party was influenced by the outcome of the reorganization, calling the original maps drawn by the Democrats “a well-meaning effort that was too far-reaching.”
Jacobs said the party was harmed in the minds of independent voters by efforts to describe it as tied to its more progressive members, along with a difficult political environment.
“We are a blue state,” he said, “which had a particularly unique set of challenges in this election, which took place in a very difficult political year for the ruling party.”
