– We thought it was enough to slow down. But we have to brake abruptly so that it does not go wrong, said Minister of Health and Care Services Ingvild Kjerkol at Monday’s press conference, where new and intrusive measures were presented.
The tightening came a few hours after FHI published a recent risk report, with gloomy prospects for the coming weeks, if the infection trend does not reverse.
In a preliminary scenario, FHI estimates that in three weeks, in the worst case, there could be up to 90,000 and 300,000 cases per day and 50 to 200 admissions per day, if the measures do not slow down the epidemic significantly.
Torgrim Log is a security and emergency preparedness expert, and professor of security at the University College of Western Norway. He believes the authorities should certainly be better, after several rounds of similar situations earlier in the pandemic.
– They reacted too late, but now they have at least reacted. It is a great pity that they have seen that the infection increased, and did not react a month and a half earlier.
Responds to «secrecy»: – Democratic problem
«Risky business»
He believes that we should have introduced restrictive measures already in 400 to 500 cases of infection. Among other things, the sanitary napkins should be kept on, and schools and kindergartens should stay at the yellow level, he says.
– But it has been governed by how full the hospitals are. Although it takes many weeks from the time the infection rises until they fill up. Steering according to that parameter is very “risky business”.
GETS CRITICISM: Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre and his government are criticized for reacting too late from, among others, Professor Torgrim Log. Photo: Marius Helge Larsen / NTB
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– It’s like a fire that gets so big, that no matter how many crews you put in to put it out, it does not work, because the logistics stop working.
– Steered on the edge
The professor believes that both the Solberg and Støre governments are to blame for the situation Norway is now in. The former because they opened the country at the end of September, and the current government because they introduced measures too late.
– We have put ourselves in check, he says.
– This has for a long time been managed completely on the edge, and we should not have a single measure too much. In risk management, there is nothing that works well. You get too vulnerable if you miss.
NEW ROUND: Despite the fact that over 90 percent of the adult population has been vaccinated, we will again meet fewer, keep our distance and stay more at home. The reason is the new variant omikron, which has changed the rules of the game, according to the authorities. Photo: Berit Roald / NTB
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– Against shutdown
Log also believes that the authorities should have learned from how previous mutations have put us out of action, and that the uncertainty surrounding the effects of the vaccines over time should have sounded the alarm bells.
– With the new virus, which is much more contagious, it is much harder to know what is enough. Had we had a low level of infection, then it would have been much easier to know what works and does not work. What is happening now, however, is a much larger experiment. If we miss now, we will miss on all levels, he says and adds:
– Nobody wants a full shutdown, but we are moving in the direction that it is necessary. Maybe it is necessary already now.
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When asked what he thinks about the figures FHI presented on Monday in its “horror scenario”, Log answers:
– It is terribly difficult to comment on this, but I think it made sense for FHI to go out with those figures. It brings out the seriousness of the situation. I have criticized FHI for not going out with such figures before, and now they do. We have an up-and-coming population in Norway, so everyone understands that we can not let it go like that. Then there will be too many sick, too many with “long covid”, and too many dead. FHI’s figures are expected to make most people extra careful and then we avoid the worst forecasts.
– Not for safety
Minister of Health Ingvild Kjerkol writes in an e-mail to Dagbladet that the measures must be proportionate, and that no stricter measures can be introduced than is necessary.
– With a large part of the population vaccinated, we could not keep measures for safety. These are measures that intervene in people’s everyday lives and which also have major consequences for workplaces and businesses, she says.
The government also tightened in some areas when infection and hospitalizations increased, Kjerkol adds.
– We now introduced very intrusive measures to slow down the spread of the new virus variant omikron and prevent congestion of the hospitals and health services in the municipalities while we vaccinate as many as possible with the third dose. Throughout the autumn, we have followed professional advice from the Norwegian Directorate of Health and NIPH. The people of Norway have impressed me through the pandemic. We’ve beaten down waves of infection before, and I’m sure we can do it again.
Furthermore, the Minister of Health says that the infection rates are now not as important as before, as the majority have been vaccinated.
– But we have known all along that the vaccines do not protect 100 percent. High infection rates will lead to some people becoming seriously ill, so we have followed the infection rates next to the admissions. We have now experienced that the protection of vaccines is declining faster than we thought, and we have a new and unknown virus variant that spreads easily. Therefore, it has now become more important to keep track of infection rates and keep them down. This is reflected in the government’s new strategy for dealing with the pandemic, where infection rates have been added as one of the indicators we manage, says Kjerkol.
Refser Støre: – Too late
Will vaccinate children
According to FHI’s weekly report for week 48, the largest increase in infection was in the age group six to twelve years, which had by far the most reported cases in relation to the population, with 1221 cases per 100,000 that week.
Among the measures now being introduced are the red level for upper secondary schools and the yellow level in kindergartens and primary and secondary schools.
FEAR OF CAPACITY: FHI’s risk report painted a gloomy picture for the coming weeks if the infection control measures do not work. On Tuesday, 119 corona patients were admitted to the intensive care unit in Norway. Photo: Ole Berg-Rusten / NTB
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Professor Jörn Klein at the University of Southeast Norway also believes that the government has reacted recently. He points out that it is now important that the government opens up for vaccines to children between the ages of five and eleven.
– The virus is widespread in children and many young people. In general, it must be emphasized that it is first and foremost up to adults to protect themselves and others from harm by vaccinating themselves. But even though younger children rarely become seriously ill compared to adults, the high incidence means that the number of more serious diseases is also increasing among them, says Klein.
FHI director Camilla Stoltenberg tells NRK that their assessment of vaccine services for all children between the ages of five and eleven will soon be ready.
– That assessment will come soon. Then there is a difficult balance between the benefit for the individual child, the risk of side effects, and the benefit of vaccinating children to stop or limit the spread of infection in society, says Stoltenberg.
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