The country is going through one of the most difficult times in recent decades. Four crises are combined and fed back simultaneously: a health, a social, an economic and a political crisis. The coronavirus, quarantines and restrictive measures brought anguish, suffering, the death of thousands of Argentines and damage to the physical and mental health of millions more. In turn, the pandemic deepened the social and economic problems that the country was already facing: poverty is rising At record levels, unemployment increases and living conditions worsen. The decision not to open the schools (undoubtedly one of the most controversial and questionable of those made by the national government) will create hundreds of thousands of new NI-NIs: adolescents who will not return to the classroom and who will not have a job either. The Argentine economy will fall this year at a double-digit rate, accumulating the third consecutive year of recession with high inflation.
Under this picture, it is not surprising that the research we conducted in Poliarquía Consultants reflect a social context where a high level of worry and fatigue prevails. We are facing an exhausted society, pessimistic and distrustful of institutions and political leaderships. It is not just a consequence of the coronavirus. The pandemic and quarantine deepened a trend that surveys have shown for a long time and that is related to the lack of economic growth, access to consumption, loss of purchasing power and lack of personal progress. The Citizen Optimism Index, prepared by the consulting firm, shows that during the last eight years, except for a few exceptional periods, pessimism has always prevailed in society. On the other hand, people are showing low levels of support for the political class in general and very low levels of trust in institutions. Today, the number of leaders who have a positive image greater than a negative one can be counted on the fingers of the hand, and most institutions have very low levels of trust: the national government (34%), Congress (27 %), unions, political parties (both with 13%) and finally the Justice, with just 7%. These values show the inability of these institutions to satisfy citizen demands.
Today’s Cristina is a blurred version of the one from a decade ago. Even so, the former president maintains a positive image in society greater than 30% and a hard core of social support of 25%
The political crisis facing the country is manifested in the fact that, perhaps, the most influential and powerful person in Argentina is not the President of the Nation but the Vice President, and that the relationship between the two is more than distant. The government faces a credibility problem. A large part of the investors, businessmen, decision makers and a very broad sector of Argentine society do not believe or trust this administration. For these actors, it is not clear what the decision-making process looks like or who has the last word on the issues. They do not perceive a plan or a way by which the Argentine economy can get out of the quagmire in which it finds itself. We are facing a government that does not have or does not communicate a vision, a plan, a story. There is no promise, no credible story told of how and when things will get better. This absence enhances mistrust and disorientation.
The root of this situation, which is the founding problem of this government, is in the fact that Cristina Kirchner he has a dose of symbolic and formal power greater than that of any other leader inside or outside of Peronism. The different sectors of Peronism (governors, mayors, trade unionists, social leaders) who for years tried to turn the page to the Kirchnerist cycle failed in their attempt. Even so, the vice president is far from having the power she had when she proclaimed her famous “let’s go for everything” in 2011. At that time, she had been re-elected by almost 30 points, she had clear majorities in Congress, the opposition was weakened and fragmented, and she had 70% approval. Cristina Kirchner was scared. He tried to go for everything and failed. Today’s Cristina is a blurred version of the one from a decade ago. He had to give up the presidency in order to unify Peronism and defeat Juntos por el Cambio, his popularity was deeply damaged, Congress ceased to be his clerk’s office and instead of inflicting fear on the main political and social actors, he meekly complains in open letters about the problems he sees in the economy, the agreement with the IMF or the rulings of the Court. Still, it is a mistake not to comprehensively consider the role and power it holds. The former president maintains a positive image in society greater than 30% and a hard core of social support of 25%. No other leader in the country has its own electoral floor like hers. In addition to controlling the Senate and much of what happens in the Chamber of Deputies, the vice president has managed to make a whole generation of young leaders refer to her through The fieldpossibly the strongest political structure in the country.
The organization founded by Maximum Kirchner has an organized and active national structure, with militancy, with leadership, has resources and cash management, and controls several of the main State agencies such as the PAMI o la Considered. The leaders of La Cámpora have begun to win elections and already govern several municipalities or provinces, it has a high number of senators and national and provincial deputies and they are advancing for more. But above all things, Kirchnerism and La Cámpora have a story, an ideology, an identity that is in turn supported by a broad sector of society. Non-Kirchnerist Peronism largely lacks these attributes and without an identity, a message or a story, it will continue to be difficult for it to be electorally competitive at the national level.
Cristina Kirchner stands on these assets. From there it conditions the rest of Peronism and Argentine politics. His strength is not enough to impose his will, but neither can another be imposed without his approval. Kirchnerism cannot materialize its vision, its objectives or its ideas, but neither does it open the possibility of generating consensus, facing reforms or sitting with the opposition at a dialogue table. In this framework, politics remains stuck and, consequently, the same happens with the economy.
President Alberto Fernandez faces an extremely challenging context and is in turn conditioned by this picture of the political situation. It seems that maintaining the unity of the ruling coalition and avoiding public confrontation with its vice president are a priority. Possibly it is the correct decision, a breakdown of Peronism in this economic and social context would open the doors to a governance crisis that the Government has managed to avoid so far. However, preserving the coalition at any cost implies a risk: it evidences an absence of clear leadership and highlights the absence of direction and direction of its government.
It is difficult to see how the Argentine political system will be able to get out of the lock in which it finds itself. What will be the fact that produces a change in this dynamic. The system is stuck in a bad balance, no sector has the capacity to impose itself hegemonically over the others, but there are no incentives or conditions to generate agreements and consensus. Meanwhile, the economy continues to fall, society is impoverished, children drop out of schools, inequality increases, investment falls and the role of the country in international politics and trade becomes inconsequential.
BESIDES
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