© Reuters.
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Investing.com – Credit Suisse released its forecasts, which regulate the dollar, major indices and commodities this week.
Forecast of inflation data
Credit Suisse said the main CPI for August will only rise by 7.9%, down from an increase of 8.5% from July, which is lower than the 8.1% forecast for the index. principal.
According to Credit Suisse, the drop in August will be 6% compared to July’s data. On a monthly basis, Credit Suisse sees CPI fall by 0.2%.
Credit Suisse justifies its judgment on the basis of the decline in fuel prices as the main driver of the fall in inflation, and its slowdown for the second consecutive month, coming in at 7.9%, after 8.5% for the month last, and 9.1% in the previous month.
As for the core CPI (excluding food and energy) year-on-year, the bank expects an increase from the previous reading, to jump year-on-year to 6.0% in August instead of 5.9% in July.
On a monthly basis, the bank sees that it will slow its growth to only rise by 0.2%.
The bank believes that basic commodity prices have declined, which has led to a slowdown on a monthly basis, noting that used car prices have fallen in recent months, as have retail prices, which motivates higher prices. prices of modern cars.
The resilience of basic consumer prices is due to the fact that prices remain high, especially in homes.
Fed and data
Credit Suisse economists commented that while their forecasts fall short of those of the Dow Jones, they do not see this happening as soon as the Fed moves away from its aggressive policy, especially after obtaining solid employment data and on production.
The market is unsure whether the Fed will raise rates by 75 basis points or 50 basis points. However, recent statements from the Fed’s enemies have favored investors at 75 basis points, which could change if inflation data drops significantly, and by taking advantage of market prices for a 75 basis point hike, the Fed may surprise. all with accommodating behavior and a less marked increase of 50 basis points.
Market reaction expected
And if Credi’s expectations are fulfilled, the US is expected to fall and the US stock market to rise.
Markets now
The US dollar index now records 108,080, down 0.6%, while contracts are up $ 1736.8 an ounce, up 0.49%. Likewise, 10-year yields increased 1.05% to 3.356%.
It is now posting a 1.77% rise to $ 94.5 a barrel, while Texas Crude is posting a 1.54% rise to $ 88.06.
And it goes up (the most profitable) by 5.6% to record $ 19,823 an ounce.
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