Create a joint force, will Belarus join the Russian defense war?

Jakarta –

The leaders of Russia and Belarus announced the formation of a joint army of the two countries. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has repeatedly stated that Ukraine is preparing to attack his country, confirming the possibility of Belarus entering the war directly.

Military and political experts in Ukraine and allied countries then ask themselves: how likely is the Belarusian army to participate directly in the conflict in favor of Russia? Is there a possibility of a new Russian attack from Belarus, perhaps as a new attempt to attack Kiev?

The BBC spoke to political and military analysts about the possibility – and prospects – of such a development.

How many Russian soldiers are there in Belarus?

The potential for new attacks from Belarusian territory has been under discussion throughout the summer, but the Ukrainian military reported that the situation in the region bordering Belarus “has not changed significantly”.

However, this fall Russia resumed its efforts to deploy troops on Belarusian territory and the situation became even more worrying with the announcement of Russia’s mobilization. According to Ukrainian intelligence, Belarus expects 20,000 new troops to be mobilized from Russia.

On October 10, the day of a massive missile attack in Ukraine (several rockets were fired from Belarus), Alexander Lukashenko announced the formation of a joint force with Russia.

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As of now, the Russian contingent in Belarus is made up of 1,000 troops, including maintenance specialists for six fighter aircraft, signaling specialists for radar stations and crew for four Iskander tactical missile systems and 12 anti-aircraft missile systems, the S-400.

It is unclear whether there has been a change in the numbers, although the head of the Belarusian military cooperation ministry Valery Revenko says there are 9,000 people.

If you believe the photos that have surfaced on the Internet, the recently mobilized Russian army is being deployed to Belarus.

On October 17, Belarus announced that around 170 tanks, around 100 guns and mortars over 100mm caliber and 200 combat vehicles would be delivered from Russia to equip the new joint force.

According to the opposition Telegram channel, the Belarusian Hajun, Russian army trains will arrive in the central and northern regions of Belarus, not the region bordering Ukraine.

How does this condition pose a threat to Ukraine?

Last week, Alexander Kovalenko, military and political analyst with the Information Resistance project, said that in order to threaten Ukraine with a full-scale invasion, Russia must deploy at least 40 battalions of tactical groups in Belarus.

In this scenario, we estimate the number to be between 24,000 and 28,000 troops. That number is roughly the size of the force that invaded Ukraine from Belarus in February.

So if there are now only 9,000 troops, it means that the battalion’s tactical group is no more than 12. As Kovalenko said, this is not a full-scale battalion, but an unequipped battalion.

“This troop is more directed at distraction rather than panic,” he said.

However, if the Russian contingent in Belarus begins to grow rapidly without warning, there will be a high probability that Russia is preparing for an invasion with new unmotivated and poorly trained conscripts.

Is the number of soldiers sufficient for the invasion?

Ivan Kirichevsky, an expert on the Ukrainian website Defense Express, told the BBC it was too early to talk about it.

“Only when the Russian troops on the other fronts are so exhausted that they can barely maintain their defenses, will the Kremlin give the order to attack, to repel the onslaught of Ukrainian forces.”

However, Kirichevsky doubted that the Russians would be able to muster enough troops to deploy further attacks from the north.

He said there were significant comparisons to be made with Russia’s efforts to form a third battle corps, which should be ready for combat by mid-August. However, the body was battle-ready by September and remained in an incomplete state.

“They weren’t ready yet, so the Ukrainian army invaded them, especially in Kharkiv,” the expert said.

Is Ukraine ready? face attack from the north?

The failed February-March offensive showed that the Russian military was having difficulty assessing its capabilities.

Lieutenant General Sergei Naev of Ukraine describes Russia’s successes in northern Ukraine at the start of the war. According to him, most of the existing Ukrainian troops were deployed for the Donbas conflict and during peacetime the units on the Belarusian border did not have enough personnel to withstand a full-scale attack.

Another factor was the incident that occurred just two days before the invasion, when Belarusian Defense Minister Victor Khrenin issued his Ukrainian counterpart Alexei Renikov an “official statement” that there would be no attack from Belarus.

The message turned out to be just bullshit. Reznikov himself admitted this, in an interview with the Washington Post.

General Naev said Ukraine is now ready to face an attack from Belarus. “The troops deployed in Belarus will increase our readiness. The Ukrainian command will build our troops and materials,” he explained.

The authorities of the region bordering Belarus have also discussed combat readiness.

Getty Images The countryside on the border between Ukraine and Belarus is a very difficult landscape for a military invasion.

Vitaly Koval, head of the civilian-military administration in Ukraine’s Rivne region, which borders Belarus along a 218-kilometer stretch, told BBC Ukraine that work to strengthen border defenses began seven months ago.

According to Koval, an invasion from the north would not be easy. “Forty percent of our territory is covered with forests. And there are impenetrable forests and swamps in the northern region, bordering Belarus. Not to mention the 170 rivers. This is a natural barrier. River bridges can be blocked. in many ways to obstruct enemy movement.. “

“You have to sacrifice yourself to go to war with us, across the border between Belarus and Ukraine,” he added.

The Belarusian army will join the war, on the Russian side?

At the end of last year, there were 17,000 soldiers in the Belarusian ground forces, most of whom were conscripts.

The Belarusian army has armored vehicles and military aircraft, and according to Ivan Kirichevsky, a Belarusian attack has the potential to inflict real damage.

However, his troops had no combat experience.

Belarusian officials, including Lukashenko himself, have repeatedly expressed their reluctance to attack Ukraine. However, given Khrenin’s words from February 22, such promises are hardly guarantees.

Is the mobilization of Belarus possible?

A few days ago, an article entitled “The decision to mobilize Belarus has been taken” appeared in the Belarusian opposition newspaper Nasha Niva.

Journalists, citing their own sources, claim that Lukashenko made the decision to carry out a secret mobilization in Belarus, equipping Russian units. According to the authors, this increases the likelihood of an escalation on the border between Belarus and Ukraine.

On Tuesday, this information was confirmed by the general staff of the Ukrainian armed forces.

“Under the guise of a training camp, covert mobilization activities are underway in the Belarusian armed forces. According to the information available, anti-aircraft missile system operators and tank crews are being trained,” he said.

Officially, Minsk has not announced a mobilization, and Lukashenko recently denied such plans.

Will Belarus fight?

Getty ImagesTank Belarus in joint training with Russia in August this year.

Oleksiy Arestovych, chief adviser to the Ukrainian presidential office, said that although there was indeed a secret mobilization in Belarus, the main targets were military construction personnel.

“That is, the main task of the Belarusian side is not to fight against us, but to build some kind of shelter for Russian troops,” he said, in a broadcast for the Russian opposition YouTube channel Feygin Live.

Arestovych believes that the possibility of direct participation of the Belarusian army in the fight against Ukraine is not inexistent, but remains very low.

For many military observers, one indication of the Belarusian army’s reluctance to go directly to war is the export of arms and ammunition from Belarusian arsenals to Russian divisions.

Kirichevsky believes that by doing so Lukashenko is trying to prevent his country from clashing with Ukraine.

Even the bloggers behind the “Belarusian Hajun” Telegram channel think that direct involvement is just one of the many ways to deal with this scenario.

It is possible that the participation of Belarus is limited to the preparation of Russian strike groups on its territory, the supply of weapons and the enabling of Russian conscription in the Belarusian camps, thus excluding the involvement of its own troops.

However, some remain convinced that sooner or later the Belarusian army will join the war.

Taras Chmut, head of Come Back Alive, a Ukrainian military aid fund, commented on the potential emergence of the Russian Iskander and the S-400 in the Belarusian army. “Either they will join the war or we will win first and the Russian Federation will fall apart.”

And what about the atmosphere in Belarus? An individual who spoke anonymously to the Ukrainian BBC journalist, who has relatives in the Belarusian army, released the following statement: “The Republic of Belarus does not want to go to war. And it will not go to war.”

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