Donald Trump, as the first president ever, must answer for the second time in a political trial in the Senate. It starts next Tuesday. With this crash course you can catch up in a few minutes.
Why It’s Important: Trump is accused of inciting rebellion and was charged by the House of Representatives in early January. The indictment revolves around his role in the storming of the Washington Capitol (the parliament building) by his supporters on Jan. 6.
The process and everything around it mainly provides insight into political relations. How will Democrats and Republicans interact in the coming years? What are Republicans doing with Trump’s legacy, both nationally and within their own party?
It is not actually about concrete results, because the chance of a conviction is very small. Moreover, Trump is already president. Such a largely symbolic lawsuit is unlikely to encourage many voters to switch to the party, if the scandals of the recent past are a guide.
Background: Two thirds (67) of the 100 senators on the jury are required for conviction. The Democrats have the smallest possible majority of 50 seats (Vice President Harris has the casting vote, but only if there is a tie). This means that 17 Republicans would have to vote for impeachment.
- The Republicans have already tried to call it off on the grounds that it is unconstitutional. The motion fell in the Senate, with 55-45 votes. Only five Republicans joined the Democrats. It can be concluded from this that the chance of Trump’s conviction is minimal.
- You can’t impeach someone who is no longer president, most Republicans say. Many of them cannot afford to alienate Trump’s supporters. The former president is still immensely popular among Republican voters.
- The Democrats call it a matter of principle: Congress must not allow an attack on the democratic constitutional state to pass. Extra bait: If Trump is convicted, he could be banned from ever holding political office again. He cannot then become a presidential candidate again. But that chance, as said, is minimal.
- The nine impeachment managers (House Democrats acting as prosecutors) have called on Trump to testify under oath. He immediately rejected that. It is not yet clear whether the Democrats want to hear other witnesses.
The big picture: Within the Republican Party, an internal battle is raging over Trump’s legacy and the future influence of ‘Trumpism’.
- Some old party elite Republicans who previously blindly supported Trump, such as Senator Mitch McConnell, blame the former president for having lost both the White House and the majority in both houses of Congress within his single term. Trumpism appeals to too narrow a group of voters, they believe, and that offers little chance of electoral success. But that same group does make up an overwhelming majority of current party members.
- Other politicians, such as Senators Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley, see themselves as Trump’s ideological successors. They would gladly take over his loyal supporters from him. However, it is doubtful whether the former president will voluntarily relinquish his influence.
If you forget everything else, remember: Unless crazy things happen, Trump will be released again in shock. In that respect, what will soon be happening in the corridors is more interesting than the political trial itself.
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