Craig Kimbrel’s Resurgence in 2021: A Closer Look at His Stunning Performance

This article is compiled from It’s called butter, because Craig Kimbrel is on a roll

For four years, Craig Kimbrel was the best reliever in all of baseball. Between 2011 and 2014, he had just a 1.51 ERA and a 1.52 FIP (pitcher independent ERA). He has a 42% strikeout rate, a .269 BABIP (batting average) and rarely gets hit. He averaged just 65 fewer innings each year and saved 185. Once Atlanta takes the lead in the ninth inning, the game is pretty much over.

For the next four years, Kimbrel was nothing more than an “excellent” reliever. With a 2.47 ERA, 2.49 FIP and 41% strikeout rate, he started walking more batters and was more likely to hit home runs. By the time Kimbrel turned 30 in 2018, his prospects were looking darker. As a result of the qualifying offer, many of his competitors had dismissed him. During 2019 and 2020, he posted a 6.00 ERA, 6.29 FIP, a miserable 14.6% walk rate, and allowed up to 2.75 home runs per nine innings.

You are more familiar with how the next story will develop This is a sign that the time of his leadership has disappeared a suitable pit, not the force he used to have.

I’ve always been interested in looking back at Craig Kimbrel’s career In his prime, he had an incredible strikeout rate and an ERA unmatched throughout the league. Even Mariano Rivera, who had a longer and more legendary career, wasn’t as strong as Kimbrel at the four-year mark. I can’t remember who coined it, but Kimbrel’s performance even led to the creation of a useless statistic: “One Kimbrel unit” means a pitcher has a negative FIP in one game. That’s what he used to do, which required at least two strikeouts, no walks and no home runs in an inning. At best, when he played it was almost a decision.

I’ve been waiting to write a review about him for a while, because Kimbrel has always been a productive reliever, but he hasn’t been a closer in a while. He got off to a hot start in 2021, but went from bad to worse as the season went on. He’s been one of several relief pitchers for the Dodgers and Phillies over the past two years, and he’s also been a closer, but his status isn’t incredible. last year’s games,His performance is completely unreliablethat makes people think “he’s not far from retirement”, right?

Maybe I’m being too harsh, but Kimbrel has only pitched seven innings this year, but his performance has been pretty impressive. He struck out 13 of the 24 batters he faced, no walks and only allowed three singles. The “one Kimbrel unit” I talked about, his FIP this season is just negative.

Obviously, he could not continue with such a strong performance throughout the season. But even if it’s a small sample size, it’s worth taking a closer look at the changes he made in Baltimore. Maybe the Orioles found the instruction manual, maybe it was the new environment, or maybe it just felt hot. Regardless, I still want to know the answer, because the completely unexpected resurrection sent his imagination to a career that was initially expected to go downhill.

First, the false metrics:

You read that right, Kimbrel’s strikeout rate this season is a career low. Who is guilty? A circle. This ball’s strike rate has dropped to ridiculous levels.

This is his signature ball, the sure weapon after two strikes that made him invincible at the highest level. Now it doesn’t look as sharp as before, spies don’t chase the ball, and it’s easier to hit the ball. Combining the two points above, this changeup ball has the same strike rate as a sinker. Have the hitters cracked Kimbrel?

Apparently not, remember this article about Kimbrel posting a negative FIP? Here’s a clip of Rowdy Tellez twice watching an 83-mile curveball hit the bases, only to let it go:

via GIPHY

This ball made Sal Frelick slowly walk back to the dugout:

via GIPHY

Kimbrel got the ball back with this ball:

via GIPHY

I don’t think this distribution ratio can continue. But they really didn’t strike out many batters, and the strikeouts they gave Kimbrel’s strikeout rate this season was close to a career high, second only to 2020, but his walk rate was this year at 17.4%. of the strikes that were ruled by the umpires were caused by the batter actively waiting for a pitch when the pitcher was behind, hoping that Kimbrel would strike out on his own this season, he began to put himself in an unfavorable position.