China-Singapore Jingwei reported on May 14 that the National Bureau of Statistics recently announced the consumer price index (CPI) of 31 provinces in April 2024. China-Singapore Jingwei found that in April, CPI of 23 provinces rose year on year. Among them, prices in Jiangxi have been increased for two consecutive months.
Image source: National Bureau of Statistics website
CPI increased year on year in 23 provinces
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in April 2024, the national CPI rose 0.1% month-on-month and 0.3% year-on-year, rising for three consecutive months year-on-year .
China-Singapore Jingwei found that in April 31 provinces, the CPI rose year after year and the provinces doubled compared to the previous month. Among them, 23 areas increased year-on-year, 3 areas remained unchanged, and 5 areas decreased year-on-year. The number of areas with an “increase, flat or decrease” last month was, 11, 7, and 13 respectively.
Especially, Jiangxi, Qinghai, Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Jiangsu, Hunan, Gansu, Hubei, Tianjin, Zhejiang, Guangxi, Hainan, Chongqing, Tibet, Anhui, Henan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Beijing, Liaoning, Guangdong, Jilin, Shandong, etc. 23 provinces saw an increase year after year, Shanghai, Shaanxi, and Xinjiang remained unchanged year after year, and 5 places including Hebei, Sichuan, Ningxia, Shanxi, and Fujian fell year after year.
In addition, from the perspective of increases and decreases, CPI data increased year-on-year of 30 provinces in April compared to March to Guangxi and Tibet had the largest increase of 0.6 percentage points, while Ningxia remained unchanged from March and continued to decline. changed so far 0.2%.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, said that there are two main reasons for the year-on-year increase in CPI in April: first, the year-on-year increase in pork prices expanded in that month, and the price of the pork was increased. vegetables turned from negative to positive year after year, effectively preventing the extension of year after year decline in fruit and egg prices. Second, under the influence of factors such as the increase in international crude oil prices and the sinking base in the same period last year, the year-on-year increase in non-food prices widened in April.
How will CPI go in the future?
Looking forward to the price movement in the next phase, institutions generally expect the median trend to continue.
Wang Qing believes that due to factors such as the lower price base in the same period last year, household consumption still has the potential to recover, and the early rise in crude oil and gold exports to the country will continue. , the CPI is expected to expand slightly to around 0.5% year-on-year in May; The price of the pig cycle has decreased, consumption has been restored and the price base is still at a low level still on the trend of widening slightly, but it will be difficult to break through 1.0% in the coming months before us
The macro team of Guosheng Securities said that short-term CPI may continue to be weak, and travel and tourism prices may still be supportive. Taking into account the impact of the May Day holiday, production recovery, and oil prices, it is expected that CPI may continue to grow slightly positive in May.
Zhang Jingjing’s team at China Merchants Macro estimates that, led by non-food items, the May CPI will remain between 0.3% and 0.5% year-on-year.
Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank, said that the current CPI, which reflects primary demand, has stabilized and rebounded, but the slope is slow and is still in a position moderately weak, indicating that the recovery in consumption is led by Holiday spending has little effect on the increase in domestic demand. Looking to the next level, if pork prices do not rise unexpectedly, CPI is expected to remain in the range of 0.3% to 1.0% in the second and third quarters.
The macro research team of Kaiyuan Securities estimates that the CPI in May will be around -0.1% month on month and around 0.4% year on year. Going forward, pork prices are unlikely to rise significantly in the short term, service and corporate consumption may recover moderately, core inflation will pick up moderately, coupled with a low base effect, CPI may rise moderately compounded year-on-year, and the average year-on-year average in 2024 is expected to be between 0%~1%.
(Editor: Wen Jing)
2024-05-14 01:07:54
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