“There is hope that by the end of this year we will be able to have a vaccine.” This was stated by WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus at the end of a two-day meeting of the organism’s executive committee. Currently – the BBC points out – there are about 40 vaccines at the clinical trial stage, including one developed by the University of Oxford that is already in an advanced stage of testing. But the WHO director did not specify which vaccine might be available by the end of the year.
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Infected 10% of the population
Another important statement of the WHO was on the spread of the coronavirus in the world: it would affect 10 percent of the world population, about 770 million people, against the figure of 35.5 million cases of Covid-19 confirmed globally, according to the map compiled and updated by the Johns Hopkins University.Mike Ryan, the World Health Organization’s (WHO) top emergency expert said Monday, addressing the agency’s Executive Board. “Our current best estimates tell us that around 10% of the world’s population may have been infected with this virus. It varies by country, between city and countryside, and varies by group. But that means that most of the world remains at risk. We are entering a difficult period. The disease continues to spread, ”Ryan said.
It is known that the real cases of coronavirus are more than those counted. During the summer, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said that underreporting in the country was likely as high as 90 percent. In Italy it was feared there were 10 times as many cases recorded, in reality they were 6-7 times greater.
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A high figure compared to other estimates
The figure proposed by the WHO, however, calculates 20 times the official infections. That sounds like a really high number, especially if parameterized to the million official deaths, because it would lead the lethality of Covid-19 at levels similar to those of seasonal flu, but in each country affected by the coronavirus, the deaths were many more.
Through his press office WHO clarified to Courier service how the calculation was made: «WHO used serum epidemiology to understand the extent of the SARS-CoV-2 infection. Most studies show seroprevalence to be less than 10%, but studies of frontline workers and some high-intensity areas estimate it to be above 20%. The vast majority of the world, however, remains at risk ”, reads the note sent.
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In Italy prevalence at 2.5%
However, even the prevalence surveys carried out with statistical criteria have estimated that, even in countries where the virus has spread more, about 5% of the population was affected and not 10%. In Italy, the SARS-CoV-2 virus seroprevalence survey carried out by the Ministry of Health and Istat estimated in August that they had encountered the virus one million and 482 thousand Italians, 2.5% of the entire population. Even in Lombardy, the region with the highest prevalence, it does not reach 10% but 7.5%. Obviously, studies on individual populations or communities present different figures: the Humanitas group’s survey of 4 thousand workers in the seven hospital centers found that between 11 and 13% of employees had come into contact with the virus, with peaks of 43 % in the Bergamo offices.
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Other calculations reach 3.1% of the population
“They may have hypothesized a different prevalence for African countries, where the population is younger and also less subjected to tampons and therefore controlled,” he says. Matteo Villa, analyst and researcher at ISPI (Institute for International Political Studies). “The message is right: 90% of the population has not been infected and therefore herd immunity has not been achieved. What is out of place are the numerical relationships in relation to deaths. With these numbers it would seem that the lethality of the virus is lower than what studies now tell us, about four times lower. If – on the contrary – I apply the official lethality estimates by age group, it turns out that the infected population in the world would be 3.1%», Concludes Villa.
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It is not a flu
In the past flu season in Italy there were 8,072,000 cases with 812 people hospitalized in intensive care and 205 deaths. Covid-19 in Italy caused 36,000 deaths. «Beyond the estimates, the million deaths from Covid-19 in the world makes us understand that we are not facing a flu, mainly because no one is vaccinated and no one had antibodies, ”he comments Paolo Bonanni epidemiologist and professor of Hygiene at the Department of Health Sciences of the University of Florence. And the WHO note also concludes with an appeal to caution: “The virus has the potential to cause enormous damage unless we take all necessary actions to stop its spread.”
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6 October 2020 (change October 6, 2020 | 20:15)
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