The hypothesis of that lgeneralized ockdown that l‘last Dpcm should ward off, now back on the table. And not just because Italian doctors have been invoking him for days. Concern is growing in the government, you keep an eye on it epidemiological curve and there is reasoning on the need for even stricter measures, such as the closure of restaurants on Saturdays and Sundays for lunch and the suspension of some commercial activities, which have obtained exemptions in the red areas. But if some ministers like Roberto Speranza and Dario Franceschini they push for a further squeeze, he first Giuseppe Conte wants proceed with caution. We cannot undermine the scientific mechanism of the red, orange and yellow zones – his reasoning in confidential meetings -. We have to wait for the effects of the measures. We have given ourselves a scientific method and we cannot question it on the wave of emotion.
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The government
The government’s goal arrive at least November 15th. Only next Sunday will it be possible to establish the effectiveness of the new mechanism which, in order to contain the infections from Covid-19, divides Italy into risk bands and imposes the business closures by limiting the movement of citizens. If in five days the epidemiological curve will not have reversed the course, the most probable hypothesis bring all the Regions into the red zone. In this case it will be essential to review the list of shops that may remain open during the day. To do this it will be necessary a new Dpcm which, should there be a political acceleration, could be discussed with Regions and CTS already next weekend.
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Expert analysis
The government receives every day reports that outline the progress of the epidemic on the basis of the ratio between swabs performed and positive, but also take into account the situation of hospitals and especially of intensive care. And this is the aspect that most worries ministers and prime ministers: even if the race of the virus slowed down between now and 15, the saturation of hospitals is likely to arrive before the trend reversal. Triggering a dramatic shortage of beds, which would impose the creation of new Covid hospitals in record time, even from the field. The report of the last week, confirmed by analysts of theintelligence who monitor every risk situation in the country, identifies mid-November as the last deadline for the start of the decrease.
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The beneficial effects
Saturday 7 November a key date. Llast Dpcm in force for almost a week, masks have been mandatory for over a month. Experts warn: The percentage between swabs and positives is 17.2%, up from 16.1% yesterday, but in line with what is expected from our curves from which a weakest growth start (but still growth) by 9 November. From 15 November there could be the real decrease where the beneficial effects of the last Dpcm occur. Already on November 3 it was highlighted that the new positives will continue to grow until 6-8 November up to and including values between 37,000 and 44,100, with a median value of about 41,000, before starting a slow descent. But if that doesn’t happen, the situation could turn out to be dramatic. The clear suggestion: In order to obtain a more effective flattening of the global contagion curve, it is absolutely advisable to implement new measures that can overlap the first positive effects of recent measures.
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I due test
There is another factor that must be taken into account and about which analysts warn: The calculation on the percentage performed using the total of tamponsi (diagnostic + confirmatory ones). If we calculated it using only the diagnostic tests (those for which the “first positive” is obtained) we would have a value of approximately 20% which represents a particularly critical threshold absolutely not to be underestimated. Just to double check the data and bulletins transmitted by the Region, the Ministry of Health sent the Nas carabinieri in Campania. A procedure that was decided to adopt in all other cases in evident criticism. Today President De Luca should accept that his region passes into the orange, if not red, band.
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November 10, 2020 (change November 10, 2020 | 08:30)
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