Huffpost Italy
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The progress of the epidemic improves, but the incidence of the virus is still as high as high is the number of dead. In our country, the deaths recorded from the beginning of the epidemic to 2 December – fonte Dashboard Ecdc – they were 56.361, the highest number in Europe (above us, at altitude 59.051, there is only the UK).
The present is delicate and the future – in the midst of the holidays and restrictive measures that the desire for family and proximity that accompanies Christmas could make useless – weighs the risk of the third wave. But how did we end up like this? What brought us into this situation and what awaits us?
Parisi and the debate on “rose water”.
For the physicist Giorgio Parisi, president of the Accademia dei Lincei, “we ended up in this situation becauseIt is we have been going on for too long without taking drastic measures. The debate between the government and the opposition on the provisions of annex’rose water – I think of all’closing time of restaurants, whether at 10pm or 11pm – how long did this go on? Drastic measures were needed: I invoked them on 21 October, they arrived on 4 November. Giat since 11 November the number of new cases has begun to decline, and the effects on deaths are coming two to three weeks later “.
Battiston: “More hospitalized than in the first wave, the death tolls will continue to be high.”
“We made a mistake the first time and it could have been, the second time we made so many mistakes that we could have avoided, now there can’t be a third”. To define the phase we are experiencing, physicist Roberto Battiston repeats: “C‘is a two, but there doesn’t have to be a three. We cannot afford the third wave, we would pay very dearly for it”. Today “the actions taken with the signed Dpcm starting halfway throughat October are producing the desired effects – he explains – but we don’t have to open now, it would be a total disaster“. Already president of’Italian Space Agency, professor of experimental physics all’University of Trento, Battiston follows the’trend of’epidemic by analyzing the data provided by’Higher Institute of Healthat and by the Civil Protection. The results of analysis and research are summarized in the graphs published on his website. “Consulting them it is evident that the peak of the’nationwide epidemic there was a week ago”, the professor points out. At the regional level, however, the situation changes. There are regions “that are going well, in which the’Rt index continues to decline linearly, provided that its mass behavior is marked by the same level of attention and protection as in the last few weeks “. This is the case in Lombardy, Piedmont, Tuscany – quest’last “proceeds like clockwork, continuing like thisì he may soon find himself out of the‘nightmare”.
But then there are regions – Puglia, Marche and Calabria – “which proceed in serious delay and from which, therefore, when it will reopenat, the contagion could start again”, Battiston warns. Hence, therefore, the needat to understand well what measures to take to avoid the risk. To do this, assuming that the virus operates with mechanisms known for a century, we must not focus on the present, but on the future. Which today means “don’t open everything for Christmas and holidaysà ”, postponing – “maybe another fifteen days”, Battiston points out – the shift into regions where l’RT falls more slowly in the lower risk range and foresee specific measures starting from 7 January, with an eye to the reopening of schools. “The lack of data on contagion in schools is a gigantic problem – says Battiston – with the reopening of the schools, the whole society is restartedat in his daily reports. First of all, health experts should be asked what they think of the risk associated with having 20-25 students in the same classroom for 5-6 hours every morning.. Then we mustat think, and do it seriously, to reorganize transport, for example, at least those used by more young people to reach schools as well as the accurate and systematic collection of data that are shared publicly. But also to take into account the habits that are difficult to change and related to the attendance of children at the side of the school. And then we need to strengthen the’interaction between the healthcare world and the school to swab quarantined classrooms as quickly as possible. I realize that planning the reorganization of transport and the return to school is not easy, but they are issues that should not be addressed ideologically becauseIt is it virus he is insensitive to ideologies and knows very well what to do and how to do it”. L’indication is “use this month to bring down the’Rt and in the meantime we plan well the actions to be taken after the holidaysat.
Yesterday, meanwhile, the number of dead touched a very high threshold. On this front, “unfortunately the death figures will continue to be high becauseIt is in this second phase the number of hospitalized people is, in absolute terms, 15-20% higher than that of the first and therefore a process has been set in motion that unfortunately we will not be able to stop until the’Rt will not go downat in a sensitive way”. For this it is essential to program alreadyat today what needs to be done tomorrow. Also to limit the damage, which promises to be far more numerous than those, albeit very significant, counted so far. Indeed, perhaps we should not just think of the pain of deaths and the suffering of hospitalizations – concludes Battiston – but also of the medium and long-term consequences of tens of thousands of people severely affected by the aftermath of the disease ”.
Galli and “the battle of resistance”.
“The dead are the price we paid and we will continue to pay the second wave, which could have been lower than the first,” explains Massimo Galli. For the director of the Infectious Diseases Department of the’“Sacco” hospital in Milan, the deaths that continue to be recorded “are the expression of a long wave that goes back over time, triggered by old infections, for which we have not been able to reverse the trend”. It was not taken for granted that the second wave would arrive – “the doctor had not prescribed it” – and instead “it came because of the attitude, held in the summer and then at the recovery, by many who thought that the virus had now disappeared”. Now we are beginning to see “the effects of targeted lockdowns, slower than those of a total lockdown, but the resistance battle against this sneaky enemy because he is invisible, but present and alive must go on – concludes Galli – and if during the holidays we will be more than careful to respect the measures set by the government and we will start all over again ”.
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