An expert predicts what a seventh wave can be like
Spain has given a new step to normal in full epidemiological situation marked by the COVID-19 pandemic, after the entry into force of the new Control and Prevention Strategy of the disease, in which quarantines are eliminated for asymptomatic people, close contacts with positives, and people with mild symptoms.
In the same way, the obligation to perform a self-diagnosis test is eliminated in the vast majority of suspected cases related to the disease, with the exception of serious symptoms, patients at risk or health professionals. This group includes those over 60 years of age, patients with previous pathologies, immunocompromised, pregnant womenand health and social health personnel, whose quarantine will be for five days.
On the other hand, in relation to the mild confirmed cases, they will not carry out isolation, so that they can lead a normal life as long as the symptoms are not severe and the disease does not develop. In this sense, recommendations will be issued aimed at preventive measures such as the use of a mask in all areas and avoiding contact with vulnerable people. In vulnerable areas, specific isolation and control measures may be implemented.
However, the decision to change phase has been described as premature by some experts. One of those who spoke was the professor at the Rovira i Virgili University, Álex Arenas. In statements collected by ‘NIUS‘, the scientific communicator explained the consequences of changes introduced in the surveillance system. “If you don’t look at anything and wait to have the affectation in the final stage, which is hospitalization, there is nothing to do there”he detailed.
Possibility of a new wave in the fall
In addition, Arenas indicated a possible date for the arrival of a new wave, which would be after the summer. “We know that immunity declines after a few months. It will do so in the summer, and then the environmental conditions will help,” he specified. Given this situation, he mentioned that the key is investment in ventilation and air purification. “It is what it touches, it is necessary to do it already”.
For this reason, he was opposed to making COVID-19 flu, and maintains his commitment to the individual count of cases as the most effective method. “The most precise epidemiological control is the individual case count,” he said.
Statements that coincide with those of Margarita del Val
However, Arenas is not the only expert who has spoken in these terms. From the CSIC, both Margaret of the Valley like Luis Enjuanes explained what the consequences of the new change were. In fact, Enjuanes himself also predicted a similar date for the arrival of a new wave. “By lifting quarantines, and by withdrawing measureswhat there will be is more chances that we will get infected,” Del Val said.
“Next winter we will have another wave, but having the population vaccinated will be like a strong flu. The predictable thing is that being a more attenuated virus, its severity is less“, said Luis Enjuanes, whose team is still working on the development of the intranasal vaccine that could be launched as early as 2023.
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