Covid-19 caused a 1.6-year drop in the average life expectancy of people around the world during the first two years of the pandemic, a more dramatic drop than previously thought, a study finds. According to hundreds of researchers who have examined data fromInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), based in the United States, is a sharp reversal of a decades-long increase in global life expectancy.
The impact of the virus on life expectancy in the first phase of the pandemic
“For adults around the world, the Covid-19 pandemic has had a more profound impact than any event seen in half a century, including conflicts and natural disasters,” he said Austin Schumacher, IHME researcher and lead author of the study published in the journal The Lancet. In 2020-2021, life expectancy fell in 84% of 204 countries and territories analyzed, “demonstrating the potentially devastating impact” of new viruses, he said in a statement.
The researchers estimated that the death rate for people over the age of 15 increased by 22% for men and 17% for women over this period. Mexico City, Peru and Bolivia were some of the places where life expectancy fell the most.
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Infant mortality
But there is good news in the updated estimates from the IHME’s landmark Global Burden of Disease study. Half a million fewer children under five will die in 2021 than in 2019, continuing the long-term decline in child mortality.
The IHME researcher Hmwe Hmwe Kyu hailed this “incredible progress,” saying the world should now focus on “the next pandemic and addressing the vast health disparities between countries.” Despite the pandemic setback, people are still living much longer than they used to.
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Between 1950 and 2021, average life expectancy at birth increased by 23 years, from 49 to 72, the researchers said.
According to researchers’ estimates, Covid was responsible for 15.9 million excess deaths in 2020-2021, either directly due to the virus or indirectly due to pandemic-related disruptions. This is one million more excess deaths than previously estimated by the World Health Organization. Excess deaths are calculated by comparing the total number of deaths with the number that would have been expected if there had been no pandemic.
The exception of the islands
Barbados, New Zealand and Antigua and Barbuda were among the countries with the lowest rates of excess deaths during the pandemic, partly reflecting the fact that isolated islands were often spared the brunt of Covid. The study also showed how the populations of many affluent and aging countries have begun to decline, while they continue to grow in less affluent countries.
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This dynamic “will lead to unprecedented social, economic and political challenges, such as labor shortages in areas where younger populations are shrinking and resource scarcity in places where populations continue to expand rapidly,” Schumacher warned . “Nations around the world will have to cooperate on voluntary emigration,” she added.
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– 2024-03-16 03:12:20
