What was feared is happening: in this summer when the virus is circulating in a sustained way because of the Delta variant, initially the infection spread among the young and the very young. They are more sociable and have a lower percentage of vaccination since, as was normal, an attempt was initially made to protect the older age groups and therefore at risk. In these hours, however, the passing of the baton is taking place: the over 40s are becoming infected, perhaps within families. It especially happens to those who have decided to go into trouble and refuse the vaccine. Over the age of 50 there are 4 million. Final result: after the highest incidence for weeks was in teens and twenties, it is now growing among forties, fifties and sixties. And there is a consequent increase in hospitalizations, given that at that age, when not vaccinated, the chances of ending up in hospital are not as low as in the case of children.
All this is told by the numbers of the latest report of the Higher Institute of Health, but it is perfectly shown by Sicily. It is the region of Italy with fewer vaccinated people, with low percentages even among the age groups for which the lethality rate is high. The island still has 15 per cent of over 70s who have not even received a dose, 20 are in their 60s, 26 are in their 50s and 22 are in their forties. There Delta variant has an R with zero (the transmission speed) between 6 and 8, inevitable in these conditions the explosion of the epidemic and hospitalizations. By now the incidence is close to 150 cases per hundred thousand inhabitants; of 7,470 new positives recorded yesterday in Italy, 1,739 were in Sicily. Yet, it performs a few swabs, half of those in Lombardy which, however, have a third of infected. Therefore, the positivity rate is high, above 8 percent, and it is easy to assume that the real positives in Sicily are many more. Also yesterday a quarter of Italian deaths (45) were concentrated in Sicily (12) which is by far the region with the most Covid patients in hospital 761 (of which 84 in intensive care). Meanwhile, the other island, Sardinia, has also seen the occupancy of intensive care beds exceed 10 per cent (Agenas data, which are not, however, the ones that count for the purposes of color classification).
He postpones
Reading the latest report from the Higher Institute of Health, updated to August 18, it is confirmed that “the median age of those who have contracted the virus infection increases Sars-CoV-2 (32 years); the increase in incidence in the 10-29 age group slows down, while there is an increase in cases in the older age groups with a corresponding but slow increase in the rate of hospitalizations “.
Again: «Most of the cases notified in the last 30 days in Italy were diagnosed in unvaccinated people. There is a strong reduction in the risk of Sars-Cov-2 virus infection in fully vaccinated versus unvaccinated people (83 percent for diagnosis, 95 for hospitalization, 97 for ICU admissions and 97 for deaths) “. More specifically, on the issue of the virus that has begun to run again among the less young and therefore among those who risk more in case of infection: “There is a slowdown in the growth of cases in the 10-19 and 20-29 bands, while they continue to grow in all age groups over 40. The incidence in the 50-59 range for the first time since the beginning of May is greater than 50 cases per 100,000 inhabitants ». Always useful to remember: from thirty-year-olds to go down, the lethality rate is less than 0.1 percent, while it increases considerably to go up: 0.2 among the forties, 0.6 among the fifties, 2.7 among the sixty, 9, 3 among the seventies, 19.9 for those over 80.
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