It is the dashboard that worries the government. According to Public Health France, “the situation is very worrying”. Contamination is on the rise again. The share of variants was higher than preliminary calculations had led to expect. And the curfew has only a “limited effect” against the spread of the virus.
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Figures on the rise
With 20,177 new cases confirmed on average every day during the week of January 18 to 24, contaminations are on the rise again (+ 9%). The progression of the epidemic concerns “the whole of the territory”, even if the eastern facade of the country remains the most affected.
At the hospital, the indicators are on the rise: new admissions increase by + 16% and those in intensive care by + 20%. And this, while hospitals are already under pressure, with some 27,000 hospitalized patients and 3,100 patients in intensive care, as recalled Thursday Olivier Véran, the Minister of Health.
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A limited effect of the curfew
The finding is clear: the curfew advanced to 6 p.m. was not enough to slow the progression of the virus. After a “drop in the incidence rate in the first fifteen departments” having put it in place, “this trend was reversed” last week. The incidence rates increased respectively by + 5% in these first 15 departments, + 15% in those having taken this measure on January 10 and 12, and finally by + 9% in the 71 departments placed under early curfew on January 16.
Its impact is therefore “limited” on the epidemic.
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More variants than expected
The British and South African variants are probably circulating more than what was envisaged in the first estimates.
The final results of the first flash survey estimate that they are “responsible for 3.3% of Covid-19 cases diagnosed by RT-PCR in France” at the time of the survey, January 7 and 8, with a presence heterogeneous on the national territory which can vary from 0.2% in Bourgogne-Franche-Comté to 6.9% in Île-de-France. Initial estimates were for around 1.4%.
A second flash investigation is underway on the results of tests carried out on January 27, 2021 to know the progression of these variants in the epidemic.
“We expect an increase, which we can not yet quantify precisely,” explains Bruno Coignard, doctor at Public Health France.
The final results will not be published until the end of next week, but the first trends could be known at the beginning of the week.
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Mental health alert
In this context, the mental health of the French is put to the test. “The epidemic situation and the measures taken to control it significantly affect the mental health of the population. The prevalence of depressive states has stabilized at a high level. Anxiety states are also maintained at a high level,” notes Santé Public France.
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