Global challenges of 2022: the Covid-19 omicron variant, the crisis in Ukraine and major elections
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We have been living in a pandemic for almost two years now, and it seems that we will have to do so again next year. Although the world is adapting, people are becoming increasingly tired of restrictions, often culminating in violent protests. Covid-19 will continue to have an impact on the economy. Andris Sprūds, director of the Latvian Institute of Foreign Policy, believes that 2022 could be challenging and can be compared to the roller coaster.
“Well, it just looks like these waves of omicron or covid with omicorn and possibly other forms will continue to sustain us, so to speak – in tone. Of course, it still poses challenges, both economically and politically, not to mention health and the healthcare system, “said Sprūds.
Tensions in the world
There are plenty of conflicts that are still on the horizon or threatening to erupt this year, with experts mentioning the same in Syria, Yemen, Libya, talk of a potential Sino-Taiwan conflict, tensions in the Middle East, growing instability in some parts of Africa and escalating against the people of Myanmar. The crisis at Ukraine’s borders seems to be the most damaging.
At least the West is paying close attention to it at the moment
“I think those scenarios are really different. Unfortunately, even such dramatic scenarios, when the situation is escalating both in Ukraine itself after the Russian aggression and in Europe as a whole. But it seems that the most probable scenario is neither war nor peace, ” he said.
Judy Dumpsey, Carnegie Europe’s international policy researcher and editor-in-chief of Strategic Europe, is also one of several experts.
which cites the difficult situation at Ukraine’s borders as a major challenge this year.
She said: “We have no idea how far Putin will go with these energy price manipulations. How he will intimidate Europeans with his military presence in Ukraine. This is a huge challenge for European foreign and security. It is a huge challenge for Europe, the United States and NATO to show a serious and united hand, and in their pockets must be good enough offers that they can put together and put in front of the Kremlin. “
Elections
There are also a number of elections this year that are worth paying attention to. There are at least two in Europe. First, presidential elections in France are expected in April. Although Emmanuel Macron, the owner of the Elysee Palace, has not yet announced his candidacy for the second term, few doubt that he will not. Andris Sprūds believes that Macron has the best chance of winning the election, at least for now.
“Of course, the elections, especially in France, are important and they are the key to a country’s European integration and further development, it is a European nuclear state and, of course, there are always some challenges here. Europe’s long-standing informal leader [bijusī Vācijas kanclere Angela – red.] Merkel is gone, so Macron has a chance to express herself and show her Europeanness. And so I think that in France, changes are unlikely to happen, “said the expert.
Elections are also expected in Hungary, a country that has been a headache for many European Union capitals and Brussels, and this is about Prime Minister Viktor Orban.
Sprūds, the director of the Latvian Foreign Policy Institute, said: “If we talk about Hungary, then yes, those scales are on both sides, and some changes cannot be ruled out, but I would not overestimate that either, because I think that in general, Poland “Hungary and, in general, what we see in the post-Soviet space and beyond, some nationalization and a conservative trend are present in at least part of society. Even if another government and coalition were elected, relations would become smoother.”
Other irregularities
The dispute between Brussels and Warsaw will also continue to be relevant in Europe. Judy Dumpsi is convinced that this needs to be resolved through negotiations, but for this to be possible, there must be a mediator between Brussels and Warsaw. According to her, who should finally say publicly to the Polish ruling party “Law and Justice” that it is not only destroying the European Union, but also separating Poland from the European Union, and that is exactly what Russia wants – a weak and divided Poland and a European Union. Union.
Much of the world will also be determined by US policy, and the test of the current White House owner Joe Biden is expected to be the mid-term elections in November. In general, experts predict that the US-China rivalry will continue this year as well.
Andris Sprūds also believes that the United States still thinks more about unilateral action and focuses specifically on China, not so much on Europe and other parts of the world. And in this regard, according to Sprud, Europe will have to make some choices about how far it wants to work with the world’s potentially largest economy, while not losing relations with the United States.
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