Public Health France held its weekly epidemiological update this Friday, July 23, under the worrying sign of a significant increase in cases of Covid-19.
“The beginning of the 4e vague »
Metropolitan France this week reached an incidence rate of 99 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, well beyond the alert threshold of 50. A figure which has more than doubled since last week, when it was 41. About 4,500 cases of contamination had been recorded on July 9. 21,423 yesterday. We will arrive at 50,000 cases probably at the beginning of August
, warned this Friday July 23 on BFM-TV Prof. Delfraissy, who chairs the Scientific Council.
Concern: for the first time in fifteen weeks, this increase in the incidence rate is reflected in a significant increase in hospitalizations: + 55% in one week, and + 35% in critical care. We are at the start of the 4e vague
, warns Public Health France.
Young people affected, but …
The virus is circulating more and more. Much more contagious, the Delta variant now represents 81% of cases in metropolitan France. It particularly affects young people, who are the least vaccinated (38% of 18-29 year olds are fully vaccinated). Incidence rate among 20-29 year olds? 311.
But all age groups are affected by a doubling of cases, except the over 70 years. However, a large proportion of the elderly (especially those over 80 who are independent) or who are fragile have not yet been vaccinated, worry experts from Public Health France.
The holidays in question?
Occitanie remains the most affected region with an incidence rate of 428. Involved? The many exchanges with neighboring Spain, where the epidemic is also on the rise. If the vacation spots seem to be the most affected, it is mainly because of the activities that are practiced there.
Bars are the places where we contaminate ourselves the most, followed by cultural places and restaurants. The President of the Scientific Council has also ruled dangerous
In epidemic terms of frequenting nightclubs, which reopened in early July.
What horizon?
The return to normal is not now, maybe 2022 (or) 2023
, warned Jean-François Delfraissy. Two scenarios arise, he explained Thursday, before the Senate Law Committee.
The first “Optimistic” would see a new variant arrive in winter or spring 2022, against which current vaccines would still be effective. The virus’s ability to mutate would eventually run out.
The second “Pessimistic”, predicts the emergence of a variant against which vaccines would not be as effective. In this second scenario, there would remain the hope of creating new vaccines, further delaying the end of the epidemic.
Suffice to say that the strategy will be long “. It
must achieve immunity of at least 95% of the population in the world. However, the World Health Organization (WHO) does not plan a general vaccination before 2023 or 2024.
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