Adrian Wyld / The Canadian Press
OTTAWA – Despite best efforts in recent months, the resources of Canada’s health care system may not be sufficient for a new wave of COVID-19 this fall, the country’s Public Health Agency is warning.
The federal agency released its most recent modeling on Friday. It calculates a possible fall peak and if it materializes, the health system could be overwhelmed, according to the agency’s chief administrator, Dr. Theresa Tam.
Still, the system managed to respond to the pandemic, which reached its first peak in late April in Canada. Hospitals were not short of rooms or ventilators. And since then, governments have increased their purchases of necessary equipment, including testing and personal protective equipment.
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We are much better prepared than we were before.La Dre Theresa Tam
Dr Tam maintains that you have to prepare for the worst-case scenario. The new coronavirus, argues the scientist, could mutate, for example.
“Something could happen to this virus. Who knows? Something could change, ”she said during a press conference on Friday afternoon.
“If all of a sudden (the spread of the virus) started to speed up in a certain way, under certain conditions …”, Dr. Tam worried.
“We are much better prepared than we were before”, she said all the same.. “We are planning more than necessary, even more than we did for the first wave. And I think that’s the safe thing to do. This scenario should serve to push all our partners in the health system to plan more than necessary, ”she insisted.
And if the capacities of the health system are exceeded, “mortality increases a lot”, she warned.
Encouraging signs hoped for
One of the factors that would add pressure on the health care system is the flu season, which usually increases hospitalizations in the fall and winter.
The Public Health Agency of Canada is monitoring the impact on influenza of all new habits imposed by COVID-19. Masks, distancing, hand washing, isolation when sick, all these measures “can also reduce the impact of respiratory viruses” such as influenza.
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The 2020-2021 flu season could therefore be less severe than in previous years. The agency is already encouraging Canadians to get their flu shot when vaccines become available this fall.
Short term forecast
When it comes to predicting the number of cases, the agency is, again, limiting itself to very short-term forecasts. As of August 23, in less than 10 days, the number could reach 127,740 cases in Canada, including 9,115 deaths. As of Friday, the agency had counted 121,234 cases including 9,015 deaths.
And then, if there was an increase in cases among 20 to 39 year olds in early July, according to epidemiological data recorded by the agency, the picture has changed since. “The incidence of COVID-19 has started to decline again in all age groups in recent weeks,” read the report released on Friday.
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