This is a still unprecedented situation. The very strong contagiousness of the Omicron variant could deeply disrupt public services and essential sectors, the Scientific Council warned during a press conference.
A record of 91,608 positive cases this Thursday, December 23, 2021. In January, it will be « several hundred thousand people a day, over a relatively long time ” of at least a few weeks, according to epidemiologist Arnaud Fontanet. If the current “foreclosure” rules are maintained at seventeen days of isolation for positive people, seven days for contact cases, seventeen for Omicron contact cases, January 2022 could be very difficult. Especially in essential sectors requiring face-to-face work (transport, food, energy, safety, health, etc.).
“We will have to assess the risk-benefit”
In fact, the hospital is already breaking certain rules: “If we respected that of contact cases, we would no longer succeed , recognizes Olivier Guérin, head of the geriatric service at the CHU de Nice. The line to be taken is more delicate for asymptomatic positive cases. It will be necessary to assess the benefit-risk between maintaining work and the risk of viral spread. ” The issue will affect all of society in January.
Would he be responsible for changing the rules, faced with a variant that is much more contagious but less virulent? The variant causes fewer hospitalizations, these would be shorter, the oxygenation requirements less important. But in what proportions? Several studies (one South African, a scottish, a british), released on Tuesday 21 and Wednesday 22 December, give very variable figures. The risk of ending up in hospital would decrease … from around 30% according to the British to 80% for South Africans.
20-29 year olds affected first
These deep uncertainties about the severities of the clinical forms make the projections too imprecise to be useful. But the data should arrive quickly. “We will have to look very closely at what will happen in London next week”, emphasizes Arnaud Fontanet.
In France, as in Great Britain, the variant first spread at high speed among 20-29 year olds before infusing in all age groups. London is a fortnight ahead of us. If there is to be an explosion of severe cases, it will be seen between Christmas and New Years.
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