VÆRLØSE / KØBENHAVN (Dagbladet): Despite good vaccine coverage in the population, Denmark is once again affected by the rapidly increasing spread of infection and high hospitalization rates. In addition, the omicron variant is expected to dominate the spread of infection at any time. But Professor Lone Simonsen at Roskilde University is absolutely certain that this pandemic will end.
– This pandemic will end, Simonsen says to Dagbladet. She is also the director of the research center PandemiX at the university.
– This is because it is reminiscent of a flu pandemic, and our experience indicates that they end after two to five years, presumably with herd immunity. Furthermore, they develop into winter epidemics that are handled with vaccination, especially by the elderly.
In addition, says Simonsen, there are two coronaviruses in the same family as SARS-CoV-2, which, like the flu, cause relatively mild winter epidemics that spread especially among children.
– These viruses must have been pandemics once. So yes, “even this shall pass!”
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“The king of mass infection”
In recent weeks, the Danish health authorities have observed how the number of omicron cases has doubled every other day. Simonsen says that she believes that omikron is “the king of mass infection events”. This is also the Achilles’ heel of the virus variant, she believes, as one can effectively reduce the risk of mass infection events.
– There is a lot we can do to prevent the spread of omikron because it is a variant that is driven by mass infection events. We saw, for example, the Christmas table in Norway, and we have had similar cases in Denmark: Christmas tables, large concerts and restaurants where young people meet, she says and continues:
– This is a mass infection disease. Thus, it will help to limit the opportunities for gathering many people in the public space.
DEPARTMENT DIRECTOR: Troels Lillebæk at the Statens Serum Institut. Photo: Kristian Ridder-Nielsen / Dagbladet
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Test capacity
Denmark is a pioneering country when it comes to test and analysis capacity. Every day, they carry out more than 200,000 PCR tests, despite the fact that they have a population of 5.8 million, says department director Troels Lillebæk at the Statens Serum Institut to Dagbladet. In addition, they analyze each positive sample to determine if it is omicron or other variants.
– It is the first time that we have seen a virus variant that has doubled every other day, and it is the steepest curve we have seen. I believe that Denmark and Norway differ from other countries, because here we discover the omicron development at an early stage, says Lillebæk.
He does not believe that the spread of omicron can be stopped, but that it can be delayed with contact-reducing measures. That way, they will avoid many people being infected at the same time. In addition, Danes will offer everyone over the age of 40 a third dose by New Year, which includes 3.5 million people.
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School measures
On 15 December, the Danish authorities sent schoolchildren home to prevent the spread of infection, and to have time to vaccinate more children and scale up the test capacity. In addition, they vaccinate children between the ages of 5 and 11.
The Norwegian Institute of Public Health is critical of sending students home from school to prevent the spread of infection. Recently, they wrote the following in their professional basis to the government:
“However, Denmark is not an example to follow here, but rather an illustration that early closure can go wrong. Last year, the schools did not reopen after Christmas, and they remained closed until March. Something similar can happen quickly in Norway ».
Furthermore, they wrote that this spring they met with the pandemic committee in the Danish Parliament for Denmark to learn from Norway about how to keep schools open through waves of infection.
“The school measures were considered something Denmark had failed to do during the pandemic,” they write.
PROFESSOR: Lone Simonsen at Roskilde University. Photo: Kristian Ridder-Nielsen / Dagbladet
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Experiences with the measure
Lillebæk talks about Denmark’s experiences with the spread of infection among children and young people.
– It is among children and young people that we have registered the largest incidence of infection with the delta variant. There is no doubt that this group is of great importance for the spread of infection in society. At the same time, we know that the fewer close contacts you have, and the fewer people you meet, the fewer people become infected – so I have a hard time imagining that the measure has no effect on the spread of infection.
– But a political assessment must also be made as to whether it is acceptable or not to send the children home from school. There are many considerations to take into account, not just health considerations.
Simonsen says that she would have given priority to introducing restrictions on nightlife and large gatherings of people, in order to prevent mass infection incidents among young adults, before sending the school pupils home.
– I think it is different this winter than last winter. Last winter, children were in fact not an important part of the spread of infection. But now it seems that it has changed, and that outbreaks in schools are a much bigger challenge with the delta variant, says Simonsen.
– We also understand that a lot of infection in schools is a challenge for teachers, at the same time as it is a challenge for parents and grandparents if the children take the infection home. So this is an overall assessment that is not just about what happens in schools.
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