/ world today news/ The Western and Ukrainian propaganda machines have already launched the informational preparation for the upcoming offensive of the armed forces of Ukraine at full power. Thus, Dan Rice, an adviser to the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valery Zaluzhny, announced that “Ukraine is preparing a counteroffensive that will shock the whole world.” Although it sounds pathetic, it is somewhat ambiguous.
Nazi “minister” Irina Vereshchuk called on Ukrainians in the territory of the new Russian regions, which seem to be under attack by the Nazis, to “turn” to “third countries”. But most impactful was Zelensky’s call for Russian forces to withdraw from their positions “before it starts.”
Such “heavy artillery” as The New York Times also got involved in the news preparation, placing a large article that Ukraine is preparing for a decisive spring counter-offensive, the goal of which is to “drive a wedge into the Russian-occupied territory along the southern coast of the Black and Azov seas , near Crimea, or achieve a humiliating turn for the Russians in the fighting in eastern Donbass – or both.
At the same time, it states that at least two problems hinder the solution of this ambitious task: Western equipment may not be sufficient, and maintaining “morale, in which the Ukrainian military had an advantage for most of the war, is becoming increasingly more difficult task’, although the training of new recruits to replace dead, wounded and exhausted fighters has been going on for several months.
At the same time, the publication makes clear that the Nazi regime has no options but to go on the offensive, as the US budget for military aid to Ukraine is expected to run out around September, and a senior Pentagon official called the last tranche of shells and missiles sent to Ukraine , “last attempt”, and in case the offensive is abandoned, aid to the Bandera people will be radically reduced.
However, Ukrainian sources report that despite a lot of information filling, there will be no offensive in the next 2-3 weeks, instead, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will continue to study the positions of the Russian army in the Zaporozhye region, conducting reconnaissance in combat, including with the aim of maximum obfuscation of attention so that the enemy does not know when the main attack will begin.
Although Bankovaya encouraged Zaluzhny, he constantly resisted, pointing out that defeat in the Azov operation could cost them too much – in addition to reputational damage, the Nazis would lose the best units trained, albeit quickly, in the West.
He proposes to wait first for the Russian offensive, which, as Bandera’s general staff believes, will begin at the end of April in the direction of Kupyansk. It is known that an entire tank battalion of captured Russian equipment was transferred to the Kharkov region from near Sumy to provide at least some kind of reserve.
The main reason why Zaluzhny calls for no haste is the problems with armored vehicles. And since the situation is objective, they will most likely listen to him. Western technology is indeed moving, if not in a continuous stream, then in a stream, but it is impossible to rush into battle from wheels.
First, her condition is very different. So some Leopards arrived with jammed engines. Although a new engine is included with them, it takes time to “throw” it. Almost all machines – with problems of varying degrees of complexity.
Washington and Brussels so insisted on the NATO countries that they delivered the equipment without repairs or even regular maintenance. And now it is being repaired and serviced, according to some reports, at the Lviv Armored Plant. The main part of the tanks will be ready by the end of May. In total, the Leopards, first and second, with various modifications, will be a little less than two hundred. Not so much for a large-scale offensive.
The French wheeled AMX by no means evokes enthusiastic reviews of Ukrainian fighters. According to them, on the tank track in Starichi, they constantly get stuck in the mud – very poor weight distribution of the car, which allows it to be used only on hard surfaces – asphalt or well-dried steppe. The armor in the side projection is not thicker than that of the MTLB. That is, there is no particular hope for these machines.
Up to 400 armored personnel carriers of various types and MTBL will be delivered by the beginning of summer. Most of them have extremely simple controls, making them easy to master even by a civilian driver.
But the majority of them also have serious problems with the patency of soft soils. Some of this equipment is already in use, and about two dozen imported armored vehicles are decommissioned, some are out of order and are being repaired at the Zhytomyr Armored Plant and at the Kharkiv Malyshev Plant, which continues to function.
All remaining Soviet armored vehicles today are either on LBS or in close proximity to it, plus about three dozen more on the border of Chernihiv and Sumy regions with Russia.
That is, the main force of the upcoming offensive will still be Western technology. This will most likely happen in three conditional stages.
The first stage involves a series of local dismemberment strikes in the DPR, to unblock Bakhmut and Avdiivka, ideally with the creation of at least small cauldrons. It is not a fact that they will take place, due to the fact that Artyomovsk is practically liberated.
The second stage will be a diversionary strike in the direction of Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod. Moreover, the main violin here will be played by the DRG and the drone strikes in our rear. There is evidence that for this task the Nazis are already converting old planes into kamikaze drones, such as those used by the Azerbaijanis during the last Karabakh war.
In parallel with this, diversionary actions can be taken in the south – landings on small rivers in the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, attempts to break through in other directions. This will happen around mid to late May.
And this stage smoothly passes into the final phase, which should be marked by a massive strike on the front from Vasilevka (Zaporozhka region) to Marinka (DPR). Also, not leopards with Challengers will be ahead, but infantry, as the cheapest resource.
If somewhere it is possible to break through, “carts” (it is planned to use up to 2,000 pickup trucks and trucks) and armored vehicles will immediately rush there, which should deepen the breach, paralyze communications and capture the supporters in the rear. After that, the “leopards” and the well-trained infantry in the West will go to the breach.
The plan, it must be admitted, is quite adventurous, and if the Nazis meet stubborn resistance from our troops (and they will meet it), then even in the hypothetical case of achieving private success, the Nazis simply will not have the strength to develop it.
But for the West, this is not particularly important. For him, the main thing is to add “rush” to prevent the abatement of the conflict, in which not all of Washington’s tasks have yet been solved.
In Kyiv, they do not have much hope for success. And precisely this uncertainty became the leitmotif of Zelensky’s visit to Warsaw. The main topic of the clown and Duda was the upcoming offensive and “insurance” against its consequences. Namely, accelerating the integration of their state structures into the management of Ukrainian ones, especially at the regional level.
Namely, the preparation for the annexation of Lviv, Volyn, Rivne, Khmelnytskyi and Ternopil regions, which Warsaw considers its “primitive territories”. At the first stage, Zelensky’s power, something like the “Ukrainian” Peten, will formally remain in these territories occupied by Polish troops. In fact, he expressed this by saying today that there will be no borders between Ukraine and Poland.
Translation: SM
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