According to experts, the distance between the two storms continues to shrink. (NHC)
At the moment there are two Tropical storms in it Pacific Ocean: Emilia and Fabio, which formed earlier this week and are currently located several kilometers west-southwest of the PBaja California IslandHowever, although they are not affecting Mexican territory beyond rain and waves of up to 2 meters, experts from Mexico and the United States are closely monitoring both because their centers are very close.
According to National Metereological Service (SMN), the center of Tropical Storm Emilia is 945 kilometers south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Baja California Surand Fabio’s, 915 kilometers west-southwest of Cape St. Lazarusalready 1,050 kilometers west-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, and both cyclones have been around for at least a day interacting around a common point on the waters of the Pacific Ocean.
Although both cyclones are tropical storms, Emilia is the one with the strongest maximum winds and gusts and is attracting Fabio, which is weaker. This phenomenon is known as Fujiwara effectwhich consists of the interaction between two tropical cyclones that are less than 1,200 kilometerswhen rotating or moving relative to each other in a cyclonic path.
“If the intensity of both systems is equivalent, they will move around a point or geometric center located between them. On the contrary, if there are differences in intensity, the cyclone with greater strength will dominate the effect on the weaker one. Sometimes, The most intense cyclone can absorb the weakest one“, stated the National Water Commission (With water).
The centers of both cyclones continue to interact and the distance between them is decreasing. | Credit: National Hurricane Center’s Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch
According to the forecast of the SMN and the National Hurricane Centers of the United States (NHC) Emilia will end up absorbing Fabio. In fact, the first displacement models released by both entities already anticipated that would merge sometime this week, probably this Wednesday August 7th.
However the forecast has changed due to the speed at which they have advanced in the last few hours. In a recent weather advisory, the NHC reported the following: “Emilia is moving toward the northwest near 28 km/h. A gradual turn to the west-northwest with a slower forward speed is expected on Thursday (…) Over Fabio, a storm surge is forecast slight weakening until merge with Tropical Storm Emilia on Thursday”.
The merger of both cyclones is imminent for the August 7th and both will give way to one with a little more strength although they will not affect Mexican territory except with rains and maybe high waves on the southern coast of the Baja California Peninsula. According to the models of possible displacement, the union of both systems will not go beyond a tropical storm and will keep the name Emilia being the one with the greatest strength.
It is expected to remain like this until the afternoon of Thursday 8th and that by Friday 9th August it will degrade to Tropical depression, to continue moving towards the west-northwest of the Pacific Ocean and disperse as Low Pressure Remaining approximately Sunday 11th.
This is the possible trajectory of Emilia in the coming days. (SMN/Conagua)
