The longer Russia has to keep a large force to repel a counterattack, the more resources it consumes, besides, prolonged waiting in conditions of increased stress lowers the morale of soldiers, that is, chronic health problems, psychological nano-eligibility and much more. Can the Ukrainian forces use this to their advantage – to threaten with a major attack, but in fact delay it? This was the question asked by a viewer in the TV24 program “Actual war in Ukraine” to Jānis Slaidin, NBS major and National Guard staff officer. “Everything is possible. First,
Medvedev, probably drunkenly blurting out in which case Russia will use nuclear weapons
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must also be an informational attack, for air mixing for the opponent to catch. Maybe, yes, everyone expects an attack in April, but it will happen on May 9, but maybe later. Everything will depend on the situation at the front.”
The officer also calls for understanding that if attack groups are formed, they cannot be kept inactive for long, they are somewhere must throw. As soon as they come to the front, they must work.
If the battalions or brigades will be placed in the starting positions and in marinades a week or two, then the Russians will certainly react, Slaidiņš believes.
ISW: The Russians are trying to make even a small advance before losing the initiative
Russian troops in Ukraine have increased the pace of operations and stepped up to achieve even a modest success before losing the initiative on the battlefield, according to analysts at the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Russian troops have made minor gains in and around Bakhmut, while news of an increase in the pace of Russian operations around Avdiyivka has emerged.
According to the situation on March 20, the Russians most likely occupied additional positions to the southwest and north of Bakhmut between Bohdanivka and Khromov.
The increase in the pace of Russian operations near Avdiyivka has led to significant losses and is believed to be a failed attempt to draw Ukrainian forces away from other sectors of the front.
ISW experts have not found that the Russians have concentrated large combat forces on the outskirts of Donetsk and it is unlikely that they will be able to sustain this temporarily increased tempo.
According to the think tank’s assessment, Russia’s general spring offensive is likely nearing its climax and Russian troops may intensify their efforts to achieve even modest gains before they lose the initiative on the Ukrainian fronts.
“The possibility remains that a Russian attack could force Ukraine to withdraw from Bakhmut and/or Avdiyivka, although this does not seem likely at this time,” says ISW.
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