Could the Kalashnikov drone change the course of the war in Ukraine?

In recent weeks, Russia has actively begun to do this use drone strikes against Ukrainian forces. Russian media and bloggers are enthusiastic about the mass use of the Lancet (Scalpel) kamikaze drone. They are already calling it a factor that will radically change the situation at the front, commented the BBC.

“Lancet”, like its more famous brother “Cube”, is a gunpowder munition – a drone that can hover in the air for a long time, track its target and attack by landing on it.

The drone gets its name from its “surgical precision”.

The latest version of the Lancet-3 develops a maximum speed of 110 km/h in level flight and 300 km/h when attacking a target. The range is 40-50km. The unmanned aerial vehicle itself weighs about 12 kg, and the payload (high explosive charge) reaches 5 kg. Such a vehicle can be in the air for about an hour.

Videos of Lancet’s successful applications on the battlefield in Ukraine began appearing in telegrams of Russian military bloggers and journalists in late October and early November.

In addition, even the Russian Ministry of Defense noted the “successful use” of the machine in its reports and called it the most effective Russian unmanned aerial vehicle.

The Ukrainian Air Force command also admits that such drones have recently begun to be widely used on the Ukrainian front.

For example, Mikhail Khodarenok, an expert and former employee of the General Staff of Russia, directly claims that the “Lancet” is significantly superior to its American counterpart – Switchblade-600.

In particular, it seems that he it has advantages in maneuvers and diving due to the unusual arrangement of its wings (the Russian drone has an X-shaped tail).

The Russian expert points out that the kamikaze drone is often used in tandem with the Russian Orlan unmanned reconnaissance aircraft. He identifies the target and the Lancet hits it.

This is usually how Russian troops try to disable Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile systems (AMS).

The expert believes that in this way the Russian Federation will be able to overcome the Ukrainian system for air defense in the near future.

“Of course, a number of air defense systems “Buk” and “Osa-AKM” are still in the composition of the VSU, and this causes some inconvenience to the pilots. But the increase in the share of unmanned aerial vehicles “Lancet ” and “Kub” in the vicinity of the battleline will sooner or later make their work impossible, and then the main aviation will be involved,” wrote Hodarenok, a former senior officer of the main command of the air defense forces, in his cable.

The expert believes that Russia’s most effective use of attack drones is now it is the biggest problem for Kiev.

Confirm this thesis with information about Germany supplying a batch of anti-drone systems to the Ukrainian army on November 16th.

“If we open the list, we will see what the biggest pain point of air defense is. 10 sensors and silencers are required to protect against UAVs. This means that “geraniums” and “lancets” are giving Kiev a real headache head,” Hodarenok wrote.

VGTRK Russian military correspondent Alexander Sladkov also publishes daily videos in which he is seen how to use lancets. He is a leading Russian propagandist and has interrogated Ukrainian and other POWs.

On his Telegram channel, which has more than 1 million subscribers, he has been regularly posting videos of Russian drone strikes since early November.

Sladkov points out that recently there has been a significant increase in Lancet-related content.

The military correspondent notes that these drones are destroying VSU equipment, such as for example the M777 howitzers, “in groups” and “one by one”. “There is no authority for the Lancet,” he rejoices her.

“The situation has changed. Today we no longer have an advantage in drones. Especially in attack drones. The question it is not in the quality but in the quantity“, describes the situation at the front in early November, Yuriy Kasyanov, commander of the air reconnaissance division of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and a specialist in the development of drones.

According to him, the problem is the significant shortage of UAVs, especially attack drones, in the Ukrainian army. And this, in turn, is due to the fact that Ukraine, unlike Russia and Iran, has never started mass production of unmanned aerial vehicles.

The expert calls the statements of various Ukrainian politicians about Moscow’s inability to introduce this type of weapon into mass production without foreign electronics a manifestation of “long live patriotism and contempt for the enemy“.

“We have lost the lead in the field of unmanned aerial vehicles. The enemy has already started using kamikaze drones like the Cube and the Lancet en masse, and we are doing everything late,” he explained to the BBC.

According to him, since the beginning of the war, the Ukrainian army has indeed been saturated with “domestic” unmanned aircraft that have been modified to perform military tasks. But only now inside In Ukraine, attempts are underway for the industrial production of specialized attack drones.

Help from Western partners in this effort is also scarce. Israel, which produces such drones, generally does not supply Kiev with lethal weapons, and the United States does not have the necessary quantity to supply the Air Force with a large batch.

“Usually not used to target equipment, but to suppress enemy firing points, destroy personnel or unarmored vehicles such as trucksKasyanov says.

“Lancet” has similar parameters. Its warhead weighs 3 to 5 kg and its range is about 40 km.

This is very different from the parameters of the Iranian Shahed-136 missile (aka Geran-2), which the Russian Federation used massively in attacks on Ukraine. Its warhead is 10 times the size of the Lancet and has a range of nearly 1,500 km.

However, Yuri Kasyanov notes that these UAVs should not be compared, as they perform radically different tasks. While the Iranian drone was used to strike the large infrastructural structures deep in the territoryLancet is an unmanned battlefield aircraft operating with separate radar or air defense systems directly near the front line.

Regarding the effectiveness of Russian kamikaze drones, the expert draws attention to the small size of the warhead and the small range. For example, Kub operates at a distance of 10-20 km and carries ammunition weighing up to 3 kg.

A drone strikes a power plant in the Crimea

The attack did not affect the peninsula’s energy supply

“These are completely different classes. It’s like comparing a cruise missile and a manned fighter jet. These are completely different weapons and completely different methods of warfare.

As for the influence of Russian kamikaze drones on the progress of the war in Ukraine, the BBC interlocutor is rather cautious in his assessment.

“I think the use of Lancet-type UAVs on the battlefield is safe gives some advantages to the enemy“, he says. – But I would not say that it will change the course of the war dramatically. No, it will not affect the outcome of the war.

Kasyanov points out that there are various methods of countering such UAVs, such as destroying them on the ground together with the operator and guidance station.

The fact that munitions for unmanned bombers exist in Russia is the result of an initiative by the company ZALA Aero, which has been dealing with unmanned aerial vehicles since the mid-2000s.

However, they only started dealing with bomber munitions in 2010. An expert, who wished to remain anonymous, told the BBC that the Russian Defense Ministry was not interested in such drones, but in commercial companies, understanding that the military they would be interested in them, they are not interested in such developments.

ZALA Aero, which is now part of the Kalashnikov group of companies, began developing bomber munitions, hoping for export supplies. “Lancet” is not their first product, it was accompanied by the “Kub” drone, which is now also used by the Russian army.

“The cube was presented at the Abu Dhabi exhibition in 2019. The Lancet premiere took place in the summer of 2019 at the military exhibition in the Moscow region, when it was the main exhibit at the Kalashnikov stand.

For this reason, Yuri Kasyanov believes that the hands are 80% made from Chinese components, but final assembly and adjustment is done in Russian factories.

But he admits that the microchips for them were also very likely made in Russia. “They can produce them forever, at least until China sells them components.“

At the same time, he says, Russia has already begun to master the process of domestically manufacturing electric motors and batteries for UAVs, previously purchased from Chinese suppliers.

Mass production of unmanned aircraft in Russia started recently. For example, the large Orion drone plant in Kronstadt was built just last year, writes the military blog BMPD, affiliated with the Center for Strategic and Technological Analysis.