Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine is a brutal reminder of how swift and deadly modern conventional warfare can be. Another equally destructive point is the Taiwan Strait, where the people of Taiwan face the invasion of the People’s Republic of China. But does a conflict in Ukraine make one in Taiwan more likely? Although there are no indications that China plans an invasion any time soon, the development of the war in Europe could have far-reaching consequences, reaching as far as the Taiwan Strait itself.
In the early hours of Thursday, the Russian armed forces, under the leadership of President Vladimir Putin, launched an attack on Ukraine. The attack began with ballistic and cruise missile attacks on targets along the country’s 1,262 kilometers, from the border with Romania to the long border with Russia. The attacks were quickly followed by airstrikes, artillery shelling and a ground assault, reportedly to capture the cities of Kharkiv, Odessa and the capital Kiev itself. Ukrainian forces appear to be putting up stiff resistance, but Russia has made significant gains, including an air assault on Antonov Airport near Kiev.
US intelligence and other authorities have predicted the Russian offensive for months, warning that the military buildup would amount to far more than the forces needed if Putin were simply trying to intimidate Ukraine. The question is, with the world’s attention on the Russian attack on Ukraine, could China decide to make its move on Taiwan?
“The invasion of Ukraine should be a wake-up call for Washington,” says Ian Eastonprincipal director of the Project 2049 Institute and author of The Chinese Invasion Threat: Taiwan’s Defensehe says Popular Mechanics. “Right now, it seems prudent for US national security officials to prepare for all sorts of possible scenarios. Putin and Xi may be coordinating operations. There is some reason to believe they are. The Russian invasion of Ukraine could be a precursor to a future use of force by the Chinese Communist Party against Taiwan.”
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Could Russia and Ukraine work together? The two countries have similar goals… up to a point. Both want strategic results at the expense of the liberal international order maintained by the United States and its allies; Putin wants the Russian Empire to return to pre-1917 levels, while China wants to bring Taiwan back into the fight. The United States stands in the way of both operations.
It is unclear how much Chinese leader Xi Jinping knew about the impending attack. If he knew it well in advance, he did nothing to coincide militarily with the invasion. Chinese military movements have been normal in the past 24 hours, although there was a flight of nine People’s Liberation Army Air Force planes – including eight fighters and a reconnaissance plane – that entered the China Air Defense Identification Zone. Taiwan. The planes did not enter Taiwanese airspace.
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It will likely take weeks, if not months, for Chinese forces to assemble for an invasion of Taiwan. Any benefit China might derive from the Russo-Ukrainian war would likely be in the form of lessons learned about modern warfare, including tactics, logistics, and the efficiency of certain types of weapons, especially short and medium ballistic and cruise missiles, since China has hundreds of both.
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An example of a lesson learned could be Thursday’s fight at the Antonov airport, about sixteen kilometers northwest of Ukraine. According to reports, a regiment from the Russian 31st Guards Air Assault Brigade swooped in via helicopter to capture the airport, intending to disembark the other two-thirds of the brigade later. The Ukrainian forces not only managed to repel the reinforcements, but also destroyed the Russian regiment, retaking the airport.
This single battle has ominous consequences for Chinese planners. Outside observers believe that China was preparing to use large-scale air assaults as part of any forced landings on Taiwan. Helicopters could simply load up troops and equipment and cross the Taiwan Strait in less than an hour. Unlike amphibious shipping troops, helicopter-borne troops can move faster and have a greater selection of landing zones on beachheads and further inland. A single helicopter can make several crossings per day.
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The problem with using helicopters, as the battle at Antonov Airport makes clear, is that they are fragile and a strong enough defense can make it impossible for them to land. If the defenders are surrounded and not relieved, as the 31st Guards learned Thursday, they could be wiped out on the ground.
In this case, Russia’s loss could be China’s gain. Chinese military planners could decide that an air assault on Taiwan is too risky, and increase their build of amphibious warfare ships to compensate. This, in turn, could push any long-term invasion schedule, if any, off by several years.
