Minister Hoekstra of Foreign Affairs calls on the Dutch to leave Ukraine, KLM cancels its flights and there are messages that flying over Ukraine will most likely become impossible from tomorrow. All measures that are being taken, probably on the basis of information the Americans have about Russia’s plans.
US media reported that the attack will begin next Wednesday, February 16. But what concrete indications are there?
increase pressure
“If only I knew,” says Dick Zandee, defense expert at the Clingendael Institute. “The information the Americans say they have is not public. They apparently made observations with satellites and received messages from which they conclude: Russia is ready for combat.”
Combat-ready is a military term used when everything needed is ready to deploy. This therefore goes further than just the equipment that has been standing along the borders for months. It would also mean that people are now in the right places and that there is, for example, enough fuel available.
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According to Zandee, that does not mean that the attack will actually take place. “It could also be that the Russians are doing this to further increase the pressure on the US and to get concessions. But it has a counterproductive effect, because the US response is only to send even more weapons that way. .”
Putin also uses that, Zandee thinks. “Because Russia can then use that again in the information war. They say: you see, the Americans accuse us of invading Ukraine, but they are the ones threatening our borders.”
loss of face
According to Russia correspondent Eva Hartog, that has been the message of the Russian state media from the start of the escalation. “Russia doesn’t want war. Every step is framed as a response to the Americans.”
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The great fear in the West is that Putin will not give up, because the Russian president probably does not want to lose face. But it is precisely because of the Kremlin’s framing that it can still go in all directions. “If there is no war, Putin will make the Russians believe that he is the one who pushed for dialogue and that he managed to prevent a war.”
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Lingering conflict
Ukraine has been in conflict with Russia since 2014. Then there were large pro-Europe protests on Maidan Square in the capital Kiev. In response, Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula of Ukraine. Since then, a simmering war has also raged in eastern Ukraine, where pro-Russian separatists, backed by Russia, are fighting the Ukrainian army.
The current escalation ultimately revolves around the same issue: Ukraine is increasingly moving towards the West, but because it historically falls within Russia’s sphere of influence, Putin is not accepting that. Ukraine is now a kind of buffer between the West and Russian territory and that buffer would disappear if Ukraine joins NATO.
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Putin has already put his demands on the table: he wants guarantees that Ukraine will never join NATO and that NATO will remove troops from Eastern European member states. The West has rejected this demand, yet it should not be seen as a loss to Putin.
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Everything in favor of Russia
“Any change in the status quo can be seen as a victory,” says correspondent Hartog. “For example, a partial withdrawal of NATO troops or agreements on military exercises.”
Whatever the outcome, according to Hartog, the Kremlin can actually frame everything in Russia’s favor. “Putin has already proven that he is in control. In a very short period of time he has brought important world leaders to the table. Everyone is watching with bated breath what he is going to do and that is a sign of strength from a Russian point of view.”
Dutch people recall
The fact remains that the threat is apparently so great that the Netherlands is recalling people. “We often follow what the Americans and British are doing,” says Zandee. “Once the Russians are in Kiev, even the military cannot fly there anymore. So as a precaution, it is better to leave now.”
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Negative consequences by America
Ukrainian President Zelensky, meanwhile, calls on people not to panic and to remain calm. “That the Americans beat the drum and increase the pressure, can therefore also have negative consequences. The Russians are becoming increasingly angry and internal stability in Ukraine is threatened. That is the last thing Zelensky wants.” According to Zandee, Americans pay too little attention to the actual effects of their actions.
It is a cat and mouse game between superpowers Russia and America with Ukraine as the battleground. The outcome remains anyone’s guess. “Ultimately, Russia wants something. Maybe the eastern territories of Ukraine, maybe force something else from the West. At the moment Putin gains nothing by taking the military pressure off the kettle and the current situation may well last for months.”
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Putin likes unpredictability
A meeting between German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Putin is scheduled for next Tuesday. Diplomatic negotiations between the West and Russia are still in full swing.
Hartog: “Putin is a leader who does not show his cards. He now plays it very cleverly. On the one hand, he speaks strong language and says that he now demands change. On the other hand, he presents himself as a sensible party. of unpredictability and that the enemy has to guess what the next step is. Because that way you make the opponent vulnerable. And so Putin can keep all options open himself.”
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