‘Could it be a faucet?’ Bitcoin returned 100 million won … “Beware of huge volatility in futures and options” [강민승의 트레이드나우]

Image = Shutterstock Bitcoin (BTC, Bitcoin), which has continued its upward trend as former President Donald Trump has the potential to win the US presidential election a few days away, has increase by 100 million won (about $71,000) after the announcement of a senior president. inflation indicators than expected in the United States ) and it shows weakness.

Market experts analyzed that Bitcoin can continue its recovery if it breaks sustainably through the main stand of $70,500, but if it breaks through the $68,500 support line, the fall to be even more.

As of 20:21 on the 2nd, Bitcoin is currently trading at 97,512,000 won ($69,625 based on the Binance USDT market) in the Upbit Korean Won market, up 0.23% from the previous day. Meanwhile, the price of Kimchi (price difference between foreign and domestic exchanges) is 1.57%.

Global stock markets fall on US inflation worries… Will there be an ’employment shock’?

Photo = Shutterstock Recently, the global stock market and the virtual asset (cryptocurrency) market have been under downward pressure as key inflation indicators considered important by the US Central Bank (Fed) have declined. US October new jobs announced the next day also recorded an ’employment shock’ that was much lower than expected, but the forecast that there will be no change in the path of interest rate cuts is gaining strength.

On the 1st, the US Department of Labor announced that non-farm payrolls in the US rose by 12,000 in October compared to the previous month. This is the smallest increase in employment since December 2020, when employment fell sharply following the coronavirus pandemic. Before that, the market was worried that if the employment indicator was significantly higher than expected like last September, that the pace of interest rate cuts would be changed. On the other hand, when the data fell well below expectations, market participants struggled to interpret it.

Photo = Shutterstock President Biden also personally took action to extinguish the fire. Biden issued a statement that day, saying, “(Employment) was affected by Hurricanes Hurlin, Milton, and the Boeing strike,” and predicted, “It will bounce back this month.” At the at one point, CNBC, the US economic news agency, said, “There is a lot of uncertainty in this report, so it will not make much sense to economists and policymakers.” The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) also predicted, “The statistics released today will not change the interest rate plan.”

Before that, the global market went up and down after the announcement of US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) headlines in September. According to an announcement from the US Department of Commerce on the 31st of last month, the core PCE price index rose 0.3% compared to the previous month and 2.7% compared to the same month last year. Compared to the previous month, according to the expectations of Wall Street, and compared to the previous year, it exceeded the expected 2.6% by 0.1% p. As the slowdown in the rate of inflation has not met expectations, the expectation that interest rate cuts may also be slower has been highlighted.

Bloomberg reported on the 31st, “The US Fed’s favorite PCE core price index recorded its biggest monthly increase since last April. “This suggests that the Fed may reduce the pace of interest rate cuts after last September’s big cut (a 0.5 percentage point cut),” he said. The explanation is that the main PCE largely based on the monthly inflation rate, and the reaction of the New York stock market was cold.

Image = Chicago Fed Watch Capture According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Fed Watch at 20:00 today, the interest rate futures market sees a 98.9% chance that the Fed will cut the key interest rate by 0.25 points per hundred in November. Interest rates are expected to be frozen at 1.1%.

“Institutions trade Bitcoin futures and options at record highs… “Big volatility is coming. “

Bitcoin spot ETF fund inflow / Photo = Farside Investors Bitcoin spot exchange traded fund (ETF) saw a net inflow of $2.275.1 billion (about 3.1407 trillion won) this week (28th to 31st of the month) that went). Trump’s recent post on it and I picked it up.

CME Bitcoin options open interest has reached an all-time high. / Photo = Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) In addition, Bitcoin futures and options trading volume in the virtual asset derivatives market reached an all-time high. Options investors are betting that Bitcoin will cross $85,000 by the end of November. Bitfinex, a global virtual asset exchange, said, “Outstanding interest (OI) for Bitcoin options on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has increased due to expectations ahead of the presidential election. US presidential election.” “Regardless of the outcome, short-term volatility may be higher than normal, but (market prices) are expected to go up in the long term,” he said.

The increase in the exchange rate of Bitcoin spot ETF and CME income is available on this page once a day. / Photo = Glassnode Weekly Report In particular, Bitcoin OI futures in the futures market of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) reached an all-time high. Glassnode, an on-chain analytics platform, said, “Bitcoin has seen net inflows of $21.8 billion over the past 30 days, and increased liquidity is supporting the upward trend,” adding, ” On the CME, Bitcoin OI income has hit everything. Many institutional investors are investing in “cash.” Recently, institutions are said to be adopting a low-risk strategy of buying spot Bitcoin while selling Bitcoin futures, which have become expensive.

Meanwhile, outstanding contracts​​​​refer to contracts in derivatives contracts such as futures and options that have not yet been settled. An increase in the volume of outstanding contracts​​​​means that money is flowing into the market. Institutional investors with large holdings usually trade on CME rather than general coin exchanges.

“Bitcoin recovers as it passes the $70,500 sustain level… “Extremely Volatile Sector”

Market experts predicted that if Bitcoin sustainably breaks through the main resistance around $70,500, the recovery trend is likely to continue, but if the support line falls near $68,500, another decline is expected. Analysts on the chain analyzed that Asian investors, such as Binance, are driving the recent rise in Bitcoin.

Recently, there is a study that Bitcoin did not break the previous high level ($73,700) and started to change down. Ayush Jindal, a researcher at News BTC, said, “Bitcoin has recently failed to overcome the $73,500 barrier and has started a new decline and is sending bearish signals,” saying, “Bitcoin could retest the $68,500 support line,” said the analyst, “The resistance line for the rise is formed at $70,500. If it breaks through, it can rise to the next resistance levels of $71,200 and $72,500, respectively.”

Cointelegraph researcher Rakesh Upadyehi also said, “Bitcoin tried to break its all-time high, but it failed and the downtrend continued,” he added, “It’s fortunate that it hasn’t had a major decline.” still exist. “Cryptocurrency optimists seem to be anticipating higher price moves.”

The analyst said, “Bitcoin is forming a support line at $70,000, and the support line for further decline is estimated at $67,117,” adding, “If Bitcoin breaks the basic resistance of $73,777, it is likely to start the upward trend. In this case, Bitcoin could rise to $93,554,” he said.

Some say that Bitcoin has entered a period of high volatility and that investors need to be careful. Alex Kupchikevich, market analyst at FXPro, said, “As global market uncertainty increases ahead of ‘big events’ such as the US presidential election and next week’s interest rate decision, Bitcoin retreated below $70,000 Bitcoin is in a very volatile zone “I came in,” he said.

“Bitcoin unexpectedly sold off near an all-time high and is currently awaiting news to confirm its direction,” the analyst said “Investors should be expect significant volatility and short-term volatility. “

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Kang Min-seung, Blooming Beat Reporter [email protected]