– The constant delays in obtaining western material have contributed to prolonging the conflict, writes Institute for the Study of War in its daily update.
They point out that this is not the only reason why the war is dragging on, but that the West must recognize that the delay in the contributions has meant that Ukraine’s ability to liberate more territory has weakened.
– Recent commitments to provide Ukraine with tanks and armored vehicles are important, but the delays may have cost Ukraine a window of opportunity for a counter-offensive this winter, ISW writes.
– Incomprehensible
Lieutenant General Arne Bård Dalhaug tells Dagbladet that he broadly agrees with what the think tank writes.
– I have said several times that it has been incomprehensible that these weapon systems were not delivered before the summer, or early autumn. Ukraine could have received more weapons earlier if there had been a faster decision-making process, and that would clearly have meant that the war was in a different place than it is today, says Dalhaug to Dagbladet.
The war also takes place in space
He points out that it would also be beneficial for the West.
– Those of the parties that get weapon systems working first always have an advantage. In my opinion, the West has been unduly slow to deliver weapons that could have changed the course of the war a long time ago, he says.
– Putin does not want NATO involvement
Dalhaug believes that leaders in the West should have been less concerned about the ripple effects of delivering weapons.
– I have a feeling that self-deterrence has been practiced. There is talk of the need to avoid the West and NATO becoming directly involved. I agree with that, but there is no automaticity in it – even if you supply artillery and weapon systems, he says and adds:
– An infinite number of weapon systems have been delivered, but Putin has not escalated the war – as some have been worried about.
Furthermore, he emphasizes that involving NATO is something Putin does not want either, as the war in Ukraine would in practice be lost for him.
– Failed spectacularly
ISW writes that if the West’s aim had been to shorten the war by speeding up Ukraine’s liberation of occupied territory, then the countries should have reacted differently.
– The fact that the stockpiles of Soviet-era weapons were small should have triggered a change when it came to the delivery of Western aid from June 2022, they write.
– This was the key
After the Russians pulled out of Kherson in November, Ukraine also lacked the ability to launch a subsequent counteroffensive, ISW claims.
– It gave Russia time and space to stabilize its lines and put pressure on Ukraine. Many factors contributed to Ukraine’s failure to continue the counteroffensive, but the West’s inability to provide the necessary materiel was definitely the key, they claim.
According to the think tank, Russian forces are preparing for an offensive in Luhansk, with a particular focus on the areas around Bakhmut. Ukraine can still launch a counter-offensive this winter, they believe, but the delays have made it possible for the Russians to make it more difficult and costly for the Ukrainians.
